17 April 2024
At the time of writing, IDF is yet to retaliate against Iran’s fireworks in the sky a few days back. Many observed that it was a night of great significance, almost Biblical when in Moses’ miracles, first born in every house were smitten by the Lord God.
For one sitting far removed from the immediacy of events, it was a night when Gazans apparently slept undisturbed in more than six months and a night when Israelis could not dare sleep at all. The Iranians had done some thing, offering an advance warning to Americans, when a IRGC staffer rang up his Pentagon counterpart to inform of Iran’s intentions-Operation True Promise! Which country or entity that was on an official US Anti Terror Watchdog list could do this, offering Uncle Sam a courtesy call that they would come calling over Israeli airspace on a given day an hour or two here and there? Iran did.
The use of drones, vintage Soviet Era ballistic missiles, modified Surface to Air Long Range missiles, and unconfirmed handful of new age hypersonic missiles is what OSINT and official media sources of various agencies of the West have confirmed. Teheran hosted videos of drone launches, of ship and shore based ballistic missile launches a day after the deed. Only military targets were subject to attack by the Persians, and curiously two airbases Ramona and Nebatim were to see just some run way stretch targeted. Regardless of how the West or Tel Aviv puts the spin on this, Iran single handedly demonstrated capability and carefully choreographed capacity for subjecting Israel to calibrated violence. They even announced the end of operations for now for good measure. The spread was geographic Israel, not sparing the South. The efforts lasted several hours of a night that IDF is unlikely to forget for times to come.
The UK, France, USA and Jordan confirmed to play a key part in the night’s activities to limit the damage to Israel. It is now more than confirmed that bulk of their shielding was done by the US using assets in Bahrain and Jordan, and those on deck of their Air Craft Carrier groups stationed in the Mediterranean. British anti missile and drone action came from Cyprus while the French reportedly joined from Djibouti. As the Anti Aircraft or Anti Missile shield lit up over the entire Middle East enveloping Israeli airspace, the Syrian and Djibouti based Russian and Chinese electronic warfare specialists must have been hot, handling any and every data that came their way as the West and their local supporters switched on their radars and networked their defence systems. To put this in prose, the mapping of Air Defence sources in this theatre was acquired in that night. May be that was Iranian payoff to Chinese and Russian allies?
Why do the Western allies led by Washington not want Tel Aviv to strike back at Iran? Why not just Biden, but Cameron and Macron actually record themselves as opposing any move by Israel to retaliate?
As 14 April dawned in to festivity in India, many woke up tossing away their previous presumptions about Israel. Most Indian watchers of Israel have always envied the freedom and impunity enjoyed by the IDF to act against terror groups and neighbouring states for decades, so it was particularly astounding for them that Israel was taking a knock that came with advance warning. It was also clear that the Saudi Iran coalition brokered by Beijing held, because after initial claims, the Saudis officially denied being a part of the effort to shield Israel. It sort of debunked Tel Aviv’s claim of a grand coalition against Iran. That now actually leaves Bahrain and Jordan uneasy vis-à-vis the Arab sentiments that are now not street level but within their corridors of power. A sense that now Israel is vulnerable and can be cornered has descended upon the Arab world. China is the biggest gainer of this Gaza war and its attempted escalation into a Gulf War, because the prime mover behind the scenes who has ensured that the war remains focused on Gaza alone is China. Even on that night when missiles rained from Iran, the Hezbollah or Hamas or Ansar Allah were studiously absent.
Haaretz has carried an opinion that is unpalatable to most of its readers, where in analyst Chaim has said that Israel has militarily lost the post 7 October war. Whether in Gaza or in efforts to escalate it to a Gulf War, Israel has failed its military objectives. You can say that after six months, IDF has yet to bring back a single hostage alive, so it has failed. You can say that after bombing Hanniyeh’s sons and grandchildren, it is unlikely that Hamas would deal the remaining 46 confirmed hostages. You can say that now Gazans are returning to North Gaza after it has become lunar scape and Israeli bombing runs have decidedly become lesser in frequency. What Haaretz and others who think likewise don’t understand is the mindset of Israeli leadership. The closest we can compare is with LTTE’s supremo Pirabakaran. The War Cabinet probably thinks like the Tiger chief once did, that the solution for ineffective violence is more violence. That military missions have only one goal, that is to clear the path for more military missions. That’s why this interlude while Israel decides to respond to Iran, is full of regular bombing missions in Gaza as well as select strikes in Lebanon. The Haaretz analysis also spoke of how settlers of North Israel along the Lebanese border were unlikely to return. This is not a defeat for Netanyahu led War Cabinet, indeed this engineers the prospect of fresh wave of settlement in Gaza and West Bank by displaced North Israeli settlers.
So will President Biden get what he desperately wants- a ceasefire? Will American elections continue campaigns under the shadow of Zionism anti semitism and Israel, topics that Americans would eminently do without? In Beijing German Chancellor Scholz alluded to a summit midwifed by President Xi for peace before leaving back to Germany today. It will be in Switzerland. Is it the next Oslo for Palestine-Israel or is it about Ukraine, or is it about both? The chance that this is more likely Middle East is because China is a key player with leverage here, unlike with Ukraine over which China despite heavy diplomatic lifting does not have leverage. Also China is unlikely to repeat her sterile efforts of last year when she huddled some 40 nations for a peace deal on Ukraine where Russia was kept out to placate Zelenskyy. Plus the ground situation in Ukraine suggests that Russians are ready for a broad offensive that could create the Dnieper river as a natural boundary for Russian annexed Ukraine and even a dash to Odessa and then force Ukraine to a negotiated settlement. We can explore this subsequently, but suffice to say, the ground situation for Russia is favourable and they are not going to give up gains hard won militarily for some imagined peace without Eastern Europe coming to terms with its Russophobia for which a military defeat of Ukraine may be a prerequisite.
So while Iran’s operations appear facile, their demonstration should be viewed as a game changer. Unlike the initial assessment that Iran will use hybrid tactics to damage Israeli sovereignty across the globe, this military capability has enabled the Ayatollahs to offer a more statesman like response. The missile capability and drone capability that Iran now has will spur it to acquire nuclear capability as well. That is how President Biden will rue his wasted four years, when he did precious little to bring Teheran back to the table on the N Deal brokered by President Obama and scuppered by President Trump.
Gulf between military objectives and strategic objectives of Washington and Tel Aviv could not have been wider than now. This despite the seamless tactical cohesion that threw up a near impenetrable umbrella for Israel on the Day Iran shocked and awed.
indiarubberman.com 