21 December 2019
#CAAAgitations
This is not the one that shook the Richter scale some 6.8 on magnitude 24 hours ago near the Pak-Afghan border and caused tremors to be felt across northern and western India. This one was a creeping movement that some how seems to have acquired a momentum without making headway about its goals.
Yes, we are seeing how the Anti CAA, Anti NRC agitation has become country wide. You wonder why this kind of agitation did not engulf the country when Demonetisation was done in 2016, you wonder why people did not agitate when GST was ordered in whimsical manner. You wonder why Article 370 write down did not get this kind of mass traction that some change in an existing statute, which actually is not relevant at all to Indian citizens and affects a few hundred refugees only should have created this mood?
We are now familiar with the narratives being fed, but what is more important is not the police brutality, or the resilience of the mob, to function still in an orderly manner as it did yesterday in Seelampur and Jama Masjid which breaching the Section 144 imposed. What is not disconcerting is that violence was reported including deaths in police firing of nearly a dozen citizens in Assam, UP, Karnataka, and Gujarat which are all BJP ruled states, even as West Bengal Police revealed that the Murshidabad train burning was carried out by a gang who filmed their own exploits and who were led by a BJP local leader now promptly disowned by the party. What is not important is also the vehemence with which people are countering images of mob violence or counter attacks on police posse with images from Sabarimala agitation, previous protests over Gau Rakshak arrests, including the waving of the Saffron flag over Udaipur bench of Rajasthan High Court last year after an adverse verdict against a right wing associated agitator. This is all what I call narrative distortions. What is disconcerting is how off guard the establishment was caught in. The utter surprise and bafflement that has trapped the establishment and the media is something which is a shocker!
One expects that the venting of frustrations and voicing of opinions at this level of insistence and vehemence was a thing of the past, for after 2014, it has been Mr Modi who assured the people, remember how he came out to say that people can hang him if he couldn’t fix the issues post Demonetisation in 50 days? It has been the credibility that Mr Modi enjoys that made for Muslims to vote for him, for TRS to be comfortable allying with BJP and for Naveen Patnaik of Odisha to not oppose him nationally. I will not comment on Mr Nitish Kumar because I have long held that he is just one person whose entire political journey hovers on self preservation. His current stance against NRC is to be seen only in that light. So what gave suddenly that when Mr Modi has asked the Assamese to trust him, or the general public to trust him, they continue to pile up on streets, hold placards and increasingly view his leadership with circumspection if not downright suspicion?
A leading Muslim academic Mr M Ayub who is University Distinguished Professor Emeritus of International Relations, Michigan State University has argued a coming full circle, by making a case for the Muslim community in India to forsake the Anti Congressism it had embraced and return to the fold of the party. (https://theprint.in/opinion/not-owaisi-tmc-indian-muslims-must-return-to-congress-after-caa-row/337494/) The INC’s own #BharatBachaoRally seemed to be a forerunner of the citizen uprising and though Ms Vadra has postured to lend her presence and support for the agitators in Delhi, it is clear that the INC’s role largely is ideological rather than any organisational support for the current phase of agitation. What however is instructive is to see journalists like Rahul Shivshanker and Rahul Kanwal being told off when they now try to ‘bait’ the Congress and bat for the government. Following these journalists on their TL makes for a clear analysis of losing credibility, just as now how Mr Bachchan is being lampooned by the Twitterati for his ‘silence’ or Mr Ganguly is getting teased about denying his daughter’s post on Instagram!
Now, people are more than eager to read many things into this apparent noisy and somewhat chaotic week. It is too early to say that Mr Modi has lost his teflon coat, but if you say his armour shows clear cracks, then you are probably right. If you see how Mr Amit Shah’s credibility as a man who was in control was shaken, then you probably saw right. If you saw BJP ministers like CM Adityanath or Karnataka’s CT Ravi make statements, it is clear that their patience is on short fuse. (https://thewire.in/communalism/karnataka-minister-ct-ravi-godhra-like-situation-protests) Of course Mr Modi addressed the economic enclave as scheduled, he did his talking up of the economy, but he could point out to his audience that the cheers were weak and not the thundering chorus he sought!(https://scroll.in/video/947445/watch-prime-minister-narendra-modi-is-unhappy-about-weak-applause-at-assocham-speech) There is a saying that a week is too long in politics, was it that kind of week in Indian politics?
One thing at least is clear to all Indians who still believed in them, that Anna Hazare, Kiran Bedi, Arvind Kejriwal who stormed into our political mind scape as authentic voices of probity and constitutionality, now are entirely exposed. That now the Indian citizens have only their own as authentic voices, is what is a major shift to a grass roots kind of political resurgence that India badly needs as a system reboot. India needs its demographic energy, and the leadership of Mr Modi has been decisively domestic and divisive as it goes about fulfilling what the Modi 2.0 Government can legitimately argue is a mandate overwhelming supported in Elections 2019!
Is this a wake up call or return to Indian moorings of ‘secularism’? Will the BJP now try to move further down the road on its agenda or was this Indian voter messaging directly to Mr Modi to take a rain check. But one thing as an analyst, I can lay my bets on, is this- Mr Modi is surprised, was his instinct true which is why he still has the escape hatch open on CAA, where his presence was noted conspicuously only on Tweets and in campaign speeches and he was conspicuously absent by the side of Mr Amit Shah in Parliament when the bill was introduced debated and voted into law! Such a view would be from innocence of not knowing Mr Modi at all! CAA was pushed as a succession charade, to secure Mr Modi’s legacy by de facto anointment of Mr Shah as successor. The duo have been together for too long and this road where they are now in, has been of their making for well over three decades. They know more than any one what is at stake, they know what is the gravity of their stakes on this one! That is the jolt this earthquake has delivered to the political scene in India!
indiarubberman.com 