3 August 2025
Shortly the world will go through the mindless commemoration of 80th anniversary of Hiroshima and Nagasaki on 6 and 9 August. Humans will connect with such a passage of time, by remembering that a 1000 full moons have borne witness in this period. And the Gaza Holocaust is going through its final motions with some clever countries using the recognition of Palestine as a fig leaf to cover for their complicity in its enactment.
Many aver wrong, that Trump is disastrous and Biden was more coherent and easier to handle as POTUS, thus making for more wary allies and unsettling the Pax Americana. Bear with this thought, that Biden Administration continued with the Trump Administration that continued with the Obama Administration to further the objectives that were set by previous administrations since the fall of the Berlin Wall to get NATO to reach the borders of Russia, and that every single act of NATO over last four decades has been to clearly bring Russia to heel. If you are willing to indulge yourself, then the Russia that NATO would be comfortable with would be a small Estonia sized one with St Petersburg, another perhaps Georgia sized around Moscow with complete Balkanisation of its Caucasian belly and distant Eastern Lands including Siberia. That would make NATO then not stop, but take a look at how to solve the problem of China next. This in brief is the cause of World War 3.
To further this, NATO needs an actor who can violate every rule and playbook of International Law, for which convenience it has raised and armed Israel. To use the term NATO is because the term ‘American Deep State’, or ‘White Man’s Burden’, can be perplexing even if more accurate to the reader. That is why Biden gave Trump no respite by handing over Syria to Bibi Netanyahu in the 11th hour of his term, so that with the space Syria gave, Israel could continue to pretend to be at forever war, in case the Houthis and Hezbollah prove tougher to handle, not to mention Iran. If General Wesley Clarke had once outlined the goals of Israel as regime changes in Syria, Egypt, Libya, Iraq and Iran, what is unsaid is that these are equally, if not more eagerly sought by the American Deep State. Losing the Petro-dollar can always be made up by gaining all the petroleum in the Middle East, isn’t it?
The gamble the Whites have taken is that not only would Ukraine whittle down Russia, but Israel would take down Iran and then China would be left for America led Alliance including Japan, South Korea, Australia and India. In the short term, American interests were to be upheld as supreme. That is how the Aussie French Submarine Deal went down and AUKUS was born, never mind if today Australia is inconvenienced by not have a suitable underwater presence. That is how the Nordstrom pipes blew up and Germany lost supply of cheap Russian Gas. Never mind if EU head,Ursula von der Layen, just agreed to import American CNG for the foreseeable future at cost of $ 250 billion. Never mind that EU constructed the infrastructure to handle this CNG at her ports. That EU gave up getting Russian Natural Gas at a fraction of this cost.
The Americans set up every player on the global arena, or at least tried to, to ensure that their set pieces were in place and the World War 3 progressed satisfactorily. What has upset their calculation is how Russians became resilient and NATO led Ukraine failed spectacularly on the military front. What has upset them is how Houthis and Hezbollah baffled the Israeli Iron Dome, blocked the Red Sea and how Iran managed to hold her own with retaliations using her missile power, especially in the now frozen 12 Day War. What finally Trump Administration is clear sighted about is the need for committed spends on War Making, ( Secretary Hagseth has repeated tried to make Pentagon the Department of War whose objective is an oxymoronic ‘to make war to bring peace!’) hence NATO members have been pushed to commit to 5% Defence Spends. What Trump is doing is continuing the process of his predecessors, while attempting a pragmatic pause that would give America and her allies the ability to ensure the certainty of her objective- destruction of Russia and China, by bolstering all available means.
What most analysts cannot fathom is that Trump or Biden are just bit players in the larger game afoot. That whoever sits on the Oval Desk would sign into force the motions that catered for this ‘forever war’ which is actually WW3. Just think Ukraine as the largest military outside of Russia in Europe and at war with Russia for last 3 years and counting, roped in not just NATO but also on the Russian side, Iranians, North Koreans, Chinese and some aver even Indian mercenary hires. So just the troops placed in SMO operations and defence of Ukraine make this a global conflict. Now Ukraine received Indian Aid too, apart from Egyptian and Pakistani 155mm shells, sourcing parts, spares and platforms from all over the world including South Korea. Every nation that takes its national interest and defence seriously has a hand in what unfolded in Ukraine’s ‘meat grinder’ fields for precisely this reason that they acknowledge that they are being visited next. And this was allowed to open under Biden’s watch. It continues under Trump’s.
For a country like India, it is not that she chose isolation. Her isolation was intended. India was promised the moon but delivered a mound. The Quad never translated to anything beyond homilies and personal moments of bonhomie. The effort in aid of Israel has not gotten India support in its war against Pakistan based terror from either the EU or from USA. Japan or South Korea don’t have executive leaders speaking to Israeli PM- the beleaguered Netanyahu, while PM Modi has been consistently speaking to him. PM Modi visited Ukraine and met with the beleaguered Zelenskyy too. Yet, PM Modi had to await in expectation over a G7 invite to Canada and subsequently witness this Trump ‘tandava’ that has blighted and slighted India. From 2020, when the Pandemic besieged India as it did the rest of the world, to now, there has been no serious American effort to help Indian economy recover, go to a fast track and be part of the larger American manufacturing effort to decouple from China. America did not help in NSG entry for India, nor does it intervene when China pulls out its engineers from a Foxconn plant in India that makes iPhones for Apple or when rare earth exports, heavy magnets and tunnelling machines are denied by China. China is enjoying the fruits of Western indulgence and benevolence, the same which has been assiduously denied to India all along, more so, in the last decade. So suddenly India finds herself left footed, lonesome and faced with the breakout of the Dragon to superpowerdom. Is India threatened if she joins the BRICS on ‘deDollarisation’ or alternative settlement to SWIFT, is she being short sold on economic investment, on manufacturing infrastructure and her military industrial complex reigned in by not supplying crucial items like Jet Engines or components timely by the West? If Pakistan’s N Proliferation is studied, we can see clearly how Americans stepped in and aided them to achieve Nuclear status, despite legislation of Pressler Amendment. So why even after Indo US N Deal, critical technologies are routinely being denied to India? So has America always thought of India as a fall guy, to be flayed or propped up when convenient but dumped at the slightest distress?
Perhaps the mandarins of India’s Strategic Calculus have finally accepted post Op Sindhoor this reality of American posturing, because an independent and strong India would be a spanner in the works of WW3. So fence mending visits to China have now happened at a furious pace and will climax with a Summit meet between President Xi and PM Modi as early as September this year. It would make India recalibrate herself after a decade, and perhaps ensure the end of her dalliance with America. At the time of this writing, the ambiguity surrounding import of Russian oil has been highlighted, as well as assurances by the MEA to take trade talks to Washington that will not compromise on Indian national interests. With China breathing down the Himalayas militarily as well as cartographically, while squeezing India in imports of critical items, India has seen the writing correctly about American disinterest. It is not that Washington is distracted or divided because of Ukraine and Israel, it is just that Washington is disengaging since it can, since it is not picking up any tab. Indian effort to quickly reassure China and make sure that neither Dalai Lama succession nor Taiwan are issues for New Delhi would help to reset the ties. A more vigorous investment climate for East Asian investors would help offset the American disengagement and the European disarray. A nation of 1.5 billion with average age 28 years needs to industrialise and occupy her population as its utmost priority. Thus if India distances herself from America and closes ranks with Eurasia, that would be in her supreme national interest. Of course, such a requirement creates a predicament for the Modi Government, calling for astute acrobatic skills and consummate diplomacy.
Make no mistake, the next theatre is nearer to South Asia and East Asia, for after Europe and Middle East, the American Deep State has China in its cross hairs. The critical ingredient would be the Asian Consensus, where it was once thought that if Japan, Korea and India can be neutral then America will be dissuaded. It is now clear that the American Deep State thinks it can handle this requirement all on its own, which is why Australia along with India, Korea and Japan are now increasingly at odds with Trump Administration. The American deep think is that if countries want the spoils of the American victory in WW3 then they have to do America’s bidding. Buy American armament, invest in America, and do as told by America. That’s why it’s not a Trump thing, it is despite Trump as POTUS. This is what Beijing has read correctly and is preparing assiduously for.That’s why the draconian control over heavy magnets and rare earths is not for Palestine or Russia, it is for China’s own cause. That is why increasingly it is likely that East Asia will close ranks with China than stand listing, cast aside by America.
We as inhabitants of earth must get used to this idea of war by any means, even tariff wars. But the deciding action will always be that of death and destruction as brought about by military actions that wars have always been. Conditions for these to unfold into more areas globally are getting scripted even as we read this…
indiarubberman.com 