- How France’s call to station troops inside Ukraine offers clues about a pan European conflagration
- How successor Administration to Biden has limited choice
- How Ukrainian conflict is capable of redrawing national boundaries
21 March 2024
Ides of March was made famous by Shakespeare as if Mars the God of War in Roman ( as well as Tamil classical antiquity as Sevvai) was at fault for offering a new momentum to a conflict that was perhaps beginning to offer an end game. President Macron has made a series of moves that apparently shift his game from being a ‘dove’ to ‘hawk’ over Ukraine. Perhaps it was triggered by the Russian retaliation to French aided action in Kharkiv where reportedly dozens of French Legionnaire were taken casualty after targeted strikes by Moscow. The reason could be that after the failure of the across the frontlines counter offensives of last summer, NATO feels that its original plan to get Ukraine to retake Crimea and secure the Black Sea needed a fillip. A strategy of using sea launched surface and submarine drones while targeting capital ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet by NATO’s long range anti shipping missiles, ( like how Shikandi was used to screen Bhisma while Arjuna attacked from behind with his tipped arrows that the venerable Grand Sire recognised as his grandson’s) Stoltenberg’s admission about the tactics to destroy Moscow’s naval presence and domination of the Black Sea last year was not just savouring of good news amidst the overall gloom, but it was a direct admission of the strategic goal of NATO which is to not allow Russia to limit Ukraine from its agricultural exports and keep the grain train open. So much of last year the Ukrainians were able to use Odessa to keep the grain reaching European ports, and when Putin now reviews the situation after clearing the decks for his first new term under the revised Constitution, France has upped the ante by planning to deploy about 2000 troops to Odessa.
So we can foresee a renewed push to create a new salient that will flow out from Odessa and probably it could open Transnistria to the West for France recently signed up for Chisinau a pact that supports military supplies and unspecified numbers of French supervisors and strategic personnel. This makes new sense after the leak that French presence in Ukraine would include and involve Odessa. Russian troops support Transnistria which has enjoyed relative independence as an autonomous region within Moldova for more than 3 decades now. The Transnistrians are likely to push for more formal linkages with Moscow just as how now North Ossetia is now seeking formal annexation by Moscow after remaining a autonomous republic within Georgia since 2008.
Are French in Odessa to support Poland? Or Romania? or the legacy states of Czechoslovakia? These countries are now part of NATO and they once held territorial interests in what is termed as TransCarpathia and other parts of Ukraine. As a small reminder of Ukraine’s recent past an obituary posted on Twitter about a master tailor Martin Greenfield says he hailed from Pavlovo in then Czechoslovakia, now Ukraine. When ever great powers are exercised over their destinies they end up overturning regional and continental consensus and reopen old fault lines or create new ones. Without going too much into European history of last five hundred years, we can say that Putin’s game to challenge the NATO’s attempt to contain Russia would involve ethnic, religious, linguistic and historical linkages that Russia offers as an Empire that was European in some or other form for more than 1000 years. We can see its impact in countries bordering Russia presently, including the Baltics and the Balkans. In this process, Ukrainian sovereignty is going to become fair game within NATO itself.
UK is likely to follow French efforts, and Canada Australia could be roped in as well. It is unlikely that in a Presidential election season the Americans will officially put boots on ground in Ukraine though. In a scenario where President Trump were to return to office, he is unlikely to reverse Biden Administration’s decisions with respect to Ukraine, and may even get the Congress to resume funding on a formula of debt financing that as candidate Trump has already spelt out. The key to this NATO formal induction into Ukraine would be how the French test waters and how soon UK, Canada and Australia can follow suit. If amongst the AUKUS community they can raise 10000 troops to defend key locations along Odessa axis along the coast and get Turkey to allow NATO warships to demonstrate Freedom of Navigation in international waters and Ukrainian waters, it would shift Moscow’s attention greatly from the central Zophorozhzhiye Kyiv axis to Kherson- Mikoliav- Nikoliav-Odessa Axis. Planners in Kremlin have already started operationalise softening of Odessa axis including bombardment of Kherson city across the Dnieper and seizing of UK supplied armoured Patrol Boats on the Dnieper in this region. However the induction of NATO forces with their accompanying armoury would alter Kremlin’s present plans significantly. This coupled with the induction of 100 F16s by June 2024 would give Kyiv a chance to stave off Moscow’s stranglehold that seeks to squeeze Ukraine into a landlocked rump centred around Lviv and the Polish border. For Moscow now this containment of Ukraine is non negotiable if Chisinau were to threaten Transnistria because without Russian presence in Odessa bordering Moldova it would be impossible to sustain Transnistria. Kremlin would already be dusting its files of WWII particularly the Sicilian landing by General Patton’s 7th Army. Could Pentagon be planning a similar operation to liberate Crimea for Ukraine?
Recent history is evidence that Crimea is the key to Moscow’s interest in Ukraine. That’s why after the surreptitious manner of occupying Crimea and annexation in 2014, Moscow has been stepping up support to rebel groups in Donbas. Once the SMO stabilised reasonably Moscow held a referendum to annex oblasts that principally are coastal and buffer Crimea from Kyiv. That also explains Ukrainian efforts to reoccupy ‘Snake Island’, to blow up the Kerch bridge, and target the Black Sea Fleet in the waters off Crimea. The whole of counteroffensive plans made by Kyiv centred on this eventual reoccupation of Crimea after cutting off the Russian military in the south and south east of Ukraine.
President Putin can be expected to fervently hope that his military can consolidate the gains on ground and create a new defensive line along the Dniper river forcing Ukraine to fight a retreating battle ever westward. He would not want to stare at the Nuclear option after a battle field catastrophe where Russians suddenly retreat eastward opening up the Azov coast to Ukrainian and NATO forces. From how Moscow has given up its influence in Nagorno Karabakh and withdrawn from Armenia entirely while allowing Azerbaijan to snub it as well, shows how Moscow clearly wants to preserve its energies for better needs. So one expects that in a contest between Transnistria and Crimea, the former would lose and Moscow is likely to pull out of Moldova if offered safe passage. This could be sold to European voters as a victory even if Odessa is lost. Moreover, if Odessa is taken at huge cost by Moscow, then NATO will actually celebrate.
However one hopes that Western military leaders are grounded in the reality that Russians have demonstrated ability to adapt, to shape the battles to their advantage, and to regroup and innovate after being initially disadvantaged by NATO technologies or tactics. The longer the NATO is embroiled in Ukrainian defence, the easier it will be for Chinese to recalibrate their plans to annex Taiwan, and easier it will be for Moscow to salvage the situation. So even if Moscow’s generals feel confident after Avdveeka, Putin is likely to preach patience to them. The Russians will advance with abundant caution. It is only NATO that could launch headlong and hope that their troops can overcome battle hardened Russians now fighting in their third year. After all, battle hardened can also be termed battle weary from desks and cubicles that are far removed from the trenches!
indiarubberman.com 