Bear Trap Versus Blitzkrieg?

Contrasting Aspects of SMO and IDF Operations offer insight into the mind of the Higher Military Organisation of Kremlin and Kirya.

28 October 2023

Disclaimer: This writing is apologetic in so far as the collateral losses of civilian life and property that go either unnoticed or ignored by military and political leadership. The larger loss of humanity is notional, since liberal and classical orthodox thought both conclude that war is an abhorrent and abominable act of humans. Puritanical belief that holds all violence is against human understanding of divinity and cosmic consciousness is not a personal belief of this writer, though such thought forms a part of the set of values and beliefs that inform the system to which the writer claims inheritance and acceptance.

When the JDAMs fell from the air over Gaza, we could see ‘shock and awe’ the way we were familiarised with during the two Gulf Wars, (the second one was more of that), and it included smart weapons that could show you from their business end, views until they brought upon their violence at target impact, which was covered by other reconnaissance assets. This Hyper War as it was deemed to be, another clear RMA( Revolution in Military Affairs) is what made most observers feel that the Russians actually lost their first series of operations against Ukraine, in what they dubbed the SMO, when they failed to take Kyiv. Subsequently most observers wrote the Russians off again when in Autumn last year, Ukraine made a series of stunning battle reverses, throwing back Russian positions across the wide front in a counter offensive that egged NATO to believe that Ukraine would be able to in due course of time, reclaim all territories, and that included Crimea. So now over 18 months of arming and training Ukrainian forces better in doctrines of NATO style hyper war and armed with newer artillery and missile platforms, armour and sensors, the West’s hopes were dashed that this Spring to Autumn counter offensive of 2023 saw Ukraine manage to merely probe the first layer of layered Russian defensive positions. Rubbing salt to wound, the Russians actually improved their positions, tightening encirclements cautiously even as they chalked up key victories in Bahmut- Artemovsk sector clearing the area completely off Ukrainian presence and now their noose is tightening over Avdveeka which is perhaps the last citadel of the Ukrainians in Donbas standing. Many Western based veteran analysts now like to think of the Russian military behaviour differently, especially after repeatedly failing to gauge the mood of their Higher Military Organisation. Now settled under General Gerasimov and perhaps with the removal of the mercurial General Surovikin who was brought in to create the Russian defensive offence strategy after last year’s withdrawals in Liman, Kupyansk, Kherson and Kharkiv, ( visibly General Surovikin is ‘cancelled’ with no mentions in Cyrillic media handles, after the Wagner March to Moscow putsch that failed), the Kremlin military machine is working on a strategy that appears much like Marshal Zhukov’s against the Wehrmacht. Right now the Ukrainians are being encouraged to hammer themselves on the anvil of Russian defence positions all along the front, in what Cyrillic and Asian origin media and analysts call ‘meat grinders’. So perhaps the Russians were actually with a method, in their apparent reverses, especially when they withdrew from the outskirts of Kyiv in early April-May of 2022, and from Kherson in November, even as they invented new techniques of urban warfare in Mariupol and then Bahmut. In urban settlement after settlement, Russian advance saw damage to buildings that now appear ghosts of themselves abandoned with their skeletons standing, surrounded by rubble. Russians have selectively used AirPower and even more selectively their vaunted Rocket Forces. No other military has the kind of range and inventory in cruise and ballistic missiles and indeed hypersonic missiles as Russians do. So these were used to target last winter the Ukrainian energy infrastructure, with the aim of salutary crippling, not with the aim of dismantling all together. Through out this conflict, we have not seen any report of water, food or medical supply shortage so far, especially when there are Ukrainian enclaves deep within Luhansk and Donetsk regions, in Kharkiv as well as in Kherson, where the Russians are challenging the embattled Ukrainian forces. On the contrary Humanitarian Corridors were openly used by Ukrainian forces to replenish themselves. At the local level of the conflict, exchange of prisoners, of claiming their Fallen is routine, as is the centrally effected exchange of prisoners. Reports of Ukrainian executions of Russian PoWs have surfaced, as have Americans claimed Russian executions of their own ‘deserters’. While Moscow offers evidence of Ukrainian abuse and violation of Geneva conventions, American led Western media at the cost of their credibility have repeated claims of Russian violations and war crimes, claims that have been doubted by OSINT and denied by Russians. ( The Western media was on its last legs already before Hamas’ Yom Kippur 50th Anniversary strike and the Israeli response thereafter.) The Russians have repeatedly shown Ukrainian military elements sporting Nazi paraphernalia like shoulder flashes, badges and other accoutrements. Initially denied vehemently, later on these evidences were simply brushed under the carpet of narrative cycles. So in much of this SMO claims made by President Putin at the beginning of this conflict which made little sense, especially with a Jewish origin Zelenskyy as President of Ukraine, now remains irrefutable. That from 2014, Ukraine observed the Minsk agreements only in the breach, that NATO continued to supply and train Ukraine, that entire Donbas and enclaves elsewhere of Russian speaking people were ostracised, persecuted and that Donbas needed ‘liberation’ from Ukraine, all of it, now no longer a Russian excuse for self aggrandisement. The hopes of Western media houses that Russian Islamic regions of the Caucasian region would see disaffection and insurrection as they would view Russian military action in Donbas as replication of the Chechen war proved wrong. Instead visibly Chechen leadership under Kadyrov has stood in solidarity, Chechen Ahmet militia have contributed significantly in battles of Mariupol and Severodonetsk. Diplomatically efforts to isolate Moscow, to politically isolate Putin Regime fell through, as seen from the Global South’s implicit support and growing economic ties, as well as the domestic solidarity that Putin received when challenged by Wagner PMC revolt.

7 October 2023 when Hamas death squads triggered hostile take overs of Israeli border checkpoints, settlements and military regional headquarters before retreating with hostages in tow, has seen Israel lose face and more. Just like how MANPADs, Storm Shadows, HIMARS, Switchblade drones, Bayraktar TB2s all lost their sheen against the Russians and Patriots and ATACMS now appear to be on the verge of joining this list, the reputation( much of it till then well deserved) of Iron Dome and Shin Bet, Mossad and Five Eyes and whatever else that Isreal and her Western allies had going for her was all to shatter. Israel had no option but to vacate Ashlekon, ( We don’t have details of other settlements and border towns that were vacated after repeated Hamas rocket attacks.) but Israel seemed more than content to use her aerial supremacy and bomb not just targets in Gaza Strip but also neighbouring Syria and Lebanon. The sight of abandoned Israeli MBTs, some actually intact, or the news of a misfired round that landed on an Egyptian border post, or asymmetric engagements with Hezbollah are evidence of IDF being under ‘shell shock’. Without going into the claims of Israel’s denial of the bombing of the Baptist Hospital, we can see more ‘rage’ that President Biden warned Tel Aviv against and less of ‘aggression’ that guides military leadership into decisive action. Israel has ended up now flattening more than 30% of all civil infrastructure, there is no major hospital whose wings have not been flattened from the air, there is no school or college premises that has not been pummelled in North Gaza and as the campaign shifts focus, the southern part of Gaza would face more than the occasional raids and bombings as it does now. Israel drops routinely pamphlets urging the Palestinian population to vacate areas, like the famous 24 hour notice it offered to North Gaza ten days ago. The ground reports suggest that after a trickle of refugees from North Gaza now most Palestinians have opted to luck themselves out, rather than face further compounding uncertainties brought by displacement. By offering this comparison of SMO, where under 10000 civilian casualties have been confirmed by Ukrainian authorities so far in nearly two years of fighting, including close combat urban fighting, you can sense the disproportionate levels of civilian loss of infrastructure and life in Gaza in last two weeks. You can Google and see as a lay reader, the difference in how buildings are razed to ground and how they stand, in how many children died in Ukraine versus Gaza, to understand how the difference on ground is merely a reflection of the difference in thinking of the HMO in Kremlin versus Kirya. Russia is definitely not waging a war to replace the Ukrainian speaking and loyal population with Russian speaking ones, is it? But the IDF is definitely using the aftermath of 7 October to accelerate the casualties caused to Palestinian children and young adults through collateral damage. It is this sudden stark contrast that alternate media ( media not from media houses and studios that are controlled by Western tycoons) has managed to bring to Western living rooms and drawing rooms, that has forced the weekend siege to cities in London, Brussels, Paris, Berlin, New York and Washington DC. It is this evident mindset that has made even Jews come out in significant numbers to oppose the Israeli actions in Gaza. So when President Biden calls out Putin and Hamas, what his own supporters hear is Putin and Netanyahu. That is how impactful this reversing narrative has been, that despite the barrage of narratives from their leader banners and studios, Israel has clearly lost the war of narrative. The recent statements by released hostages, has proven to further undermine Israeli claim that they are dealing with the ‘children of darkness’.

IDF have launched several ground ‘probes’ so far in Gaza. These are either tactical or training before the actual assault on Gaza, perhaps more an issue of morale, trying to regain lost nerves. For against the IDF are Hamas who have no armour, whose mobility is largely two wheeler borne, and whose assault weaponry does not go beyond mortars, shoulder fired missiles and assault rifles. Are IDF tacticians trying to pry out the extent of armoury held with Hamas that purportedly got diverted from Ukraine?

America is assembling a massive Mediterranean Fleet that includes conventional air power, cruise missile armoury and ground troops like Delta Force, Marine Expeditionary Units who are well versed with close quarter combat and hostage extraction. They have been warning overtly Iran to keep out of this conflict, and hope that none of the Arabs will respond to Israeli provocations on their borders to join this fray. However American Deep State would not want anything more than to satisfy its itch for Iran as a bargain for its involvement in the Middle East. American efforts militarily could include flattening Iranian coastal and hinterland infrastructure that could delay the China backed infrastructure corridor that involves both Iran and India, called the North South Corridor. While analysts can argue that NSC is a counter by India to China’s BRI East West Corridor, the ground reality is that for Iran the biggest financial and infrastructure development agency is China ( including the development of Chabahar port) and that China sees gains by interlinking the EWC with the NSC that could create a grid to Eastern Europe without involving the Atlantic Ocean. China is also keen on the Northern Sea Route developed by Russia to avoid the choke point of Malacca in the Indian Ocean in her access to Europe and Americas. Strategically China hopes to use the Gateway of India as Iran is christened to willy nilly rope India into its BRI.China has successfully demonstrated her capacity by fully absorbing the Russian gas export deficit from EU in one year. Hence the reference to India Middle East Europe Corridor (IMEC) by President Biden as potential trigger for Hamas attacks which was talked back by in what is now a trademark Biden WH drill.

So is the SMO a more sustainable kind of war? Does this kind of controlled defensive offence wearing down the enemy and sparing largely the civilian populations and civilian infrastructure more diplomatically and politically resilient? Russian rebuilding of Mariupol within the year, the rebuild of Kersch bridge across the Crimea, the successes against drone strikes in hinterland Russia have come against losses of not just aircraft in bases in depth areas, but also loss of face to Moscow. Yet the Russian approach is more sage like in contrast to the Israeli one, is it? Despite all the taunts and abusive language President Putin has faced from even President Biden, his public utterances have never been outside the boundary of decorum and diplomatic decency. Despite attempts to have President Putin arrested by a warrant issued by an international tribunal, the Russian diplomatic corps is unfazed and working behind the scenes to shore up support and prevent isolation of Moscow. There is a lot of gravitas that has made Moscow rise like the proverbial phoenix after being faced with the most virulent of campaigns and tightest of economic sanctions ever imposed.

Now for pure academic purposes imagine what Kirya would do, if faced with such pressures on its morale? Imagine what Tel Aviv would do, if is was diplomatically isolated by the West? Proportionately what Israel is to her immediate neighbourhood, Russia is to hers. Militarily the Israeli edge is far superior to boot. Diplomatically the Jewish ethnicity, the Holocaust and the context of Anti Semitism offer Tel Aviv aces that Moscow can never aspire for, even as Soviet memorials for WWII get torn down and desecrated across Eastern Europe.

Ultimately the brass must never lose sight of the fact that military remains a means to an end. That war is merely an instrument of state policy. Within military doctrines, the era of manoeuvre war fare or hyper war seems to be on a rethink, after the failures of Western doctrine in Ukraine. Au contraire, the era of attrition seems to find renewed resurgence. At day’s end, the military dictum that shines through this haze of smoke and debris of war is only this- Its the man behind the machine that counts. It’s the mind that is mightier than brawn.