#Ukraine: The Drift’s Disarray

9 March 2022

Never have I had to pause, because, my muse was driving me to morbid conclusions, those that I have only dread and regret for. When one analyses strategic sweepstakes, one must take the utmost cautions, even while painting a scenario of war, that the wishful thinking that this oeuvre begets is not to be construed as ‘war mongering’ or bloodlust. Unfortunately from the imaginary ‘Ghost of Kyiv’ to the pictorials of real mothers gunslinging casually with assault rifles on one arm and baby bag slung over the other, holding their boys and girls and crossing what is now the ‘war zone’ in Ukraine, of weddings between army couples on the front line, or those of civilians in cities with mortar and artillery shelling sounds in the backdrop instead of the peals of church bells, these are the very stuff that romanticises conflict of this brutal nature, where blood or flesh unfortunately do not have the capability to deny steel or explosive powder!

What peaceniks and liberals out there rooting for Mr Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainians do not understand is that merely wishing for Russia to fail or chorusing against the aggression on ground now, when Russia is enacting what Putin has been speaking of as his last resort for well over a decade, is going to make a dent. I can think only of Gibran’s immortal prose: “Destiny comes suddenly, bringing concern; she stares at you with horrible eyes and clutches you at the throat with sharp fingers and hurls you to the ground and tramples upon you with ironclad feet; then she laughs and walks away, … What can you do? Where can you find patience and condolence? How can you revive your hopes and dreams? What power can still your turbulent heart?” More magical words cannot bring forth the tragedy unfolding along Ukraine. Yet, even with all this chaos, of unintended casualties, like that of an Indian student, or of an old couple who were smashed by a steel volley in their car, the shadow of the Grim Reaper is pronounced all over, from the coastal south to the east where Lugansk and Donetsk are now ‘independent republics’ and from the Byelorussian border to the north, a noose tightening by each day, each passing hour, with Russian forces or those backed by them gaining a clear upper hand, a clear posture stands out.

Only prejudice will deny the Russian patience and persistence in unfolding operations without causing ‘collateral damage‘ a term made famous by Madeline Albright to justify the humungous casualties in Iraq in Gulf War I and its aftermath. Of course, we must not fall prey to whataboutery, for then, as humanity, we can never move forward. However, despite all the news about the brutality of Russian campaign underway, there is very clear evidence that Putin’s troops are not rampaging their way through, nor are they dunking Ukraine back to the Stone Age through senseless bombardment from the air. Till now the Russians have avoided a Stalingrad style urban warfare scenario. Till now Russians are comparatively using the lightest possible hammer to get their way in the ‘special military operations’ sanctioned by their Duma.

No major news media covers these facts unfortunately. Even curiously while they cover Mr Zelensky’s fervent appeals, highlight the rhetoric by political lightweights in Ukraine and elsewhere rooting for an anti Russian campaign, there is no discussion of how Russians have held out an olive branch of cessation of all hostilities, including an immediate one, subject to conditions being accepted by the Ukrainians, all efforts to highlight how Americans are creating an air bridge and how Ukraine is resisting the Russian military action. There is inadequate discussion of how Russians are allowing corridors for evacuation, from Sumy to Mariupol, to Kharkiv and this when much of the Ukrainian military could easily slip from these very zones and fall back to the Central Western region between Dnipro and Kyiv, living to fight another day. After creating a lot of rumour surrounding the Russian take over of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant, the largest in Europe, with Iodine syrup becoming scarce across Europe and entering black market for three days, Western Media tried to bury what was a smooth take over and continuous monitoring of that facility by all agencies involved. Even now a scare about Chernobyl is being created by IAEA no less. This agency is the one that misled the world and allowed the US to claim WMDs for its Operation Iraqi Liberation, remember?

When reports came of how across the Polish border citizens were leaving baby strollers for the Ukrainian families seeking refuge, the image of the Syrian boy washed ashore came up. It refused to get gulped down, probing a thread of clear racist prejudice in how Europe is now handling refugees from the war torn region. The feedback of African and Asian origin refugees out of Ukraine was so unflattering that it queered the pitch of support for Ukrainian cause somewhat in these regions. Let not how Europe today welcomes Ukrainian white Christian families home, or how correspondents mock the rest of world by decrying this scale of conflict and this level of exodus as one befitting the third world and not Europe, water down the overall liberal humanitarian movement that seeks to limit wars of the future. Yet, without pricking our collective consciences over these glaring disparities, can humanity move forward?

As an analyst, I saw the Ukrainian exodus as a domino falling. In a chain now, I expect its effect to cascade all the way to the USA. Not exactly as a trail of refugees alone, but more importantly, a larger hardening of human prejudices and identity based consolidation that it will trigger. I look at how mercenaries are now entering Ukraine, seeking war bounty or spoils of war as it were, and how on the flip site, the FSB and elite Russian units would undertake counter infiltration and cross border insurgency operations to stoke dissension in Eastern Europe. The ‘settled Europe of the last 100 years’ seems to have now reached its ‘expiry date’, prematurely due to Ukraine. I see the reopening of not just the Baltics, but also the original ‘Balkan’ region. If the domino went unstopped, we could well see Pre Bismarck Europe emerge all over, hundreds of city states, dominated by one ethnic or linguistic sect, each eager to prosecute their fief, which made Europe an unstable continent, at war entirely with herself. The conscription of ‘nation’ could be well be upended, if not shaken thoroughly. From Moldova in the very vanguard of new battle lines in Europe to Corsica in the depth, there are fault lines every where, which even a central EU can find difficult to handle if passions are stirred by shadow forces and find funding. It sounds ironical, just an exact decade back in 2012, EU was toasted with the Nobel for Peace. “War is as old as Europe,” explained Herman Van Rompuy, the first European Council president, accepting the award in Oslo in December that year. “Our continent bears the scars of spears and swords, cannons and guns, trenches and tanks, and more.” In 2019, The Time had marked the trend of nationalism as how Europe could unravel. I go further now to say that the seeds could well be ethnicity…Slav, Turk, Teutonic, Nordic, take your pick and pit one against another.

Grain speculators like to talk of how Wheat prices triggered the Arab Spring of 2012, and now not just Europe, but the whole world can fasten its seat belt to await the next run on Wheat, triggered by the largest producer exporter (Russia) now in a fight of his life with the fifth largest producer exporter(Ukraine)! The whole commodities set is on fire now, from natural gas to crude oil which hog headlines, to stuff like methanol, fertilisers including nitrogen based and potash, sapphire substrates which are crucial for semiconductor chip. Analyst Maxim Suchkov had hosted a neat thread on how this conflict will affect global commerce which is linked here.

This morning, there is clear news that Mr Zelensky is finally ‘open’ to the idea of not seeking NATO membership, and to offering some form of recognition to breakaway provinces to the east, in exchange for Russian guarantees. (Crimea is not on the table however, since across the Russian political spectrum it is one non negotiable. Remember Mr Navalny himself sided with Putin’s annexation of Crimea. )What is not clear is how this shift in his views would lead Ukraine from the extreme antagonism whipped up against Russia to accepting a peace that would be clearly on Mr Putin’s terms. Nor is it clear, if the forces so recklessly unleashed by American led Western Compact against Russia would not create ripples in Europe, for Mr Putin is now not going to leave any stone unturned. The signs of Germany seeking to keep channels open through Israel and France making the case of inevitability of Russian energy in Europe’s basket, are of individual countries marking a slant, distancing themselves from NATO. Likewise also is Poland’s offer to fly MiG29s to Ramstein in Germany, from where the Americans could supply it to Ukrainians, or the lukewarm response of various members of NATO to the demand for a No Fly Zone over Ukraine!

The domino is this drift that has been egged on by AngloSaxon Countries, whose strategic goal is to maintain their mainstay on world affairs. Ukraine is the latest pawn. While China is eagerly watching Ukraine, it is simplistic to deduce that what applies to Ukraine in the West applies to Taiwan in the East. Russia is not China. Ukraine is not Taiwan. That said, this drift has set in motion actions that would lend to China’s growth at the expense of the USA, not just in dollar denominated trades, but in other spheres as well. It would appear that to buy peace with his domestic audience, President Biden has botched his till now single minded focus to contain China. If the flames from Ukraine spread further west, it would engage America more across the Atlantic than across the Pacific. Is the shoe lace worth the Kingdom? From this disarray who will emerge the new leader of Europe? After RW Ultra nationalism and neoconservatism have run their course, who will pick up the pieces and rebuild the world and bring it to a sense of order? All bets are off at this point…