Afghan Evacuation: Lost In Comparison?

 18 August 2021

The way many American veterans are arguing about the Biden Administration, it would seem that they were arguing for continued presence in perpetuity of the US mission to keep Afghanistan from the Taliban. What few strategic analysts can now grasp in clarity, amidst the chaotic scenes from Kabul is how orderly the transition has actually been, whether it is by default or by design, only future intelligence exposé will reveal.

For now, the US has achieved its targeted aim of exiting Afghanistan before 1 September. It has also ensured minimal blood shed, though the prospects of further blood letting under the new Taliban regime there remains very high, particularly a sense of vendetta and settling of old scores nurtured over two decades of hostility over loyalties. Yet, if one sees how European embassy staff have vacated their premises and leaving their local Afghan collaborators high and dry in Kabul, be it the Swiss or the Dutch, it is also clear, that in the minds of Western strategists, there is simply no other way! It would seem that American as well as EU quotas for accepting refugees from abroad have been exhausted by the influx of Syrian refugees over the last decade, which made the current pressures to accept Afghanis that much more an uphill ask!

In many ways, Afghanis themselves, were not prepared for the rapidity of the American exit or the Taliban takeover. That power accepts no vacuum seemed to be lost sight of. They were hoping even when provincial territories fell and when their capitals fell to the Taliban that somehow Kabul would be spared. Even as late as the fall of Bagram, the largest and most important US Base after its vacation, did not quite seem to trigger in Afghans a sense of desperation about the situation. That explains largely the rush to somehow come on board aircraft that were taking off, including the new lasting memory of a C17 Globe Master taking off with scores of Afghanis running along its taxiway and many clinging on to its wheels and wings as stowaways. There were follow up shots of some of them falling to the ground and unconfirmed reports that this aircraft suffered undercarriage fault forcing a technical halt en route to the US in the Gulf. Instead of Turkey manning the Kabul Airport, we saw confirmation that the Airport is now in American hands, and officials confirming a halt temporarily to evacuation flights, to regain full control of the airport from civilians who had stormed it to board departing aircraft.

Unlike the last time, the Taliban appear to be making more politically correct noises. They announced a general amnesty to government officials and ordered them to return to their work stations in Kabul. Taliban were also seen enjoying amusement rides in Kabul, as well as generally keeping to themselves, as long as women were sporting hijab and escorted by men. For now, the new regime, has also announced that women can come for work, as long as they adhere to the codes for ‘modesty’ that would be announced from time to time. It actually made major gains when China announced its desire to work with the new Taliban regime for the welfare of Afghanistan and with the clear caveat that Afghan territory will not fall prey to terror sponsorship. We are well aware that ETIM ( East Turkestan Islamic Movement) is the main concern of the Chinese, who seek to insulate Uighur from the new reality across the border of a neighbourhood now in the thrall of Islamic Shariah and fervour, loosely if not entirely unregimented and far from a conventional state. Recognition of the regime is just a matter of time. De facto, even the US Centcom commander has spoken to the Taliban authorities in charge of Kabul. Another country which will be now key to Afghanistan is Pakistan, who predictably welcomed the overthrow of the Ghani government in Afghanistan and who actively backed the Taliban. Imran Khan, as PM, welcomed the liberation of Afghanistan from ‘slavery’ as he termed it. What surprises watchers is absence of the neighbourhood biggie and single largest stakeholder in Afghanistan’s infrastructure from ports, dams, railroads to even its new Parliamentary building-India, that too when presiding over the UNSC! 

While military strategists will ruminate over the timeline of resistance by the Afghan Army and its collapse in face of the Taliban advance, the theories that US veterans are placing for domestic consumption is that the Afghans were armed and trained in counter terrorism and not in conventional warfare which is why they collapsed so rapidly. Is the US military affairs community admitted tacitly that it failed on its trillion dollar bet? That the Taliban were tactically and strategically actually conventional? Or is the picture of return of Guantanamo Bay detainees as Kabul’s new Governor or Police Chief the dead giveaway? That the new leader of Afghanistan was a Pakistani detainee who posed famously with Secretary Blinken’s immediate predecessor? That US strategy for better part of last three years, was opening a dialogue through UAE and Qatar with insurgent groups and tribal leaders in Afghanistan, which most importantly consisted of the Taliban! So orderly was the US withdrawal, unlike the Soviets, they did not have to fight their way out. The only detail missing was visuals of handing over of actual posts and bases to Taliban elements on ground. 

There are veterans from NATO and US military who claim that Afghan collaborators have now a bleak prospect and likely to face liquidation at the hands of the Taliban. There were quite a few who turned up to decry Biden’s supposed abandoning of Afghan project, without coming up with alternatives. Yet, they don’t recognise how well this came through, without a single instance of Taliban closing up and exchanging fire with the Americans, which is in contrast to the Soviet pull out in the face of Mujahideen resistance decades ago! Even now, the Taliban have assured Kabul that they will not stand in the way of diplomatic evacuations even as they desired that Afghans should stay back.

It is early days. Yet, this much is clear from the collapse of Afghanistan and the manner of the Western retreat from there, that nation building, placing a military and police capable of holding out, obtaining popular support for democratic system in Afghanistan, have failed. While many decry the fate of women and children in Afghanistan, the plight of weaker section of humanity that always is at the receiving end of any conflict situation, is near universal. Whataboutery can dilute and deflect from what would definitely be a fate full of uncertainty and disadvantage to the cause of Afghani women and children. 

Comparing Afghani retreat to previous military rout of the US in Nam, or Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan itself is misplaced. Also misplaced is this overwhelming narrative that Afghanistan has pushed the clock back to 2001, largely ignoring how for over two decades nearly 40% of Afghanis who never saw the previous Taliban Emirate have added to their population, and how as a young country where the largest segment is under teens, is going to react to the new developments there. Most military strategists will admit that conquest is one thing, staying the course and welding the conquered into a new state is an entirely different ballgame! What concessions the Taliban will offer to this new generation five years from now and what concessions the new regime will offer even now as it takes charge of Afghanistan will offer the Western pundits proof of the effectiveness of the efforts undertaken by NGOs and selfless volunteers who sought to build a modern civilisation there.