02 April 2021
This one has a lot of what analysts call ‘wheels within wheels’! The Russian presence in the Eurasian Continental is one which we cannot ignore, no matter how much Chinese lay claim to the honours of being the titans, for reasons of history, reasons of character of the people and most importantly the resources of this land.
While it is possible that Denisovians are the original Russians, or it is even possible that the first ‘Rishis’ in the Vedic tradition were actually from Russia, ( a theory which was voiced by even the pontiff of Kanchi called ‘Sage of Kanchi’ by western orientalists- Sri Chandrasekerendra Saraswati who had one of the longest reigns on the seat of Kanchi Kamakoti Peetam. So let us not allow a Boney M number about Rasputin and Russians lead us astray on Russian antiquity. I am sure that the unfreezing of the Arctic Tundra will have a consequence of unveiling even greater facets to Russia that previously documented.
More importantly, a Soviet Culture of Scientific Temperament, with religion taking a back seat in sociopolitical matters, a sense of shared future, the most gender neutral state and society, all bear a Russian imprint, not just the Cyrillic script. One of the few reminders of Russian greatness is actually the contributions of the Eastern Front in first halting and then squeezing back the Nazis, arriving at Berlin before the rest of the Allies, one that would have ended the Great War sooner perhaps, but for pacts between Stalin and Roosevelt to create a balance for post World War Europe.
The Russians even after the Cold War was lost, continue to impact the world in military hardware, in soft ware suites for cyber security and cyber penetration ( hacking, bugging, remotely destroying web architecture and platforms) and then there is a whole order of heavy engineering and frontier technology, like the ones that power India’s Brahmos missile and her GSAT launch vehicles. The Russian approach to weapons platforms is different from the American /Western approach, and no country knows it best than India, no force better than the IAF and Indian Navy that operate the best of both systems! The Russian approach places machine performance envelope ahead of the human ergonomics, a philosophy quite Asian, built definitely on Western Science foundations.
These days we seem so enamoured with Chinese successes that we quite forget that the failure of Reagan-Thatcher leadership to come up with a Marshall Plan for former Soviet Republics including Russia, led to poaching of scientific talent by CCP China and to sudden stellar transformation, catapulting it to the top rung of nuclear, aerospace https://journals.openedition.org/chinaperspectives/577 and ship building sectors in the world, and wherever China was held back, it was simply because of the tenacity of one person- Vladimir Putin! Russian comeback after the debacle of the Cold War was the most critical rescue operation, even more than the Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan a decade earlier, a military move that was the domino starting the collapse of Soviet Empire! Perhaps, if Western thinkers and Deep State influencers were to look deeper into the Soviet and Russian near history from 1990 to 2010, they would be able to understand that the current recovery of Russia is nothing short of a miracle. And even in this desperate period, the Russians were able to deny the rapacious CCP China https://eurasiantimes.com/furious-russia-blasts-china-over-unauthorized-copying-of-russian-military-hardware/ even more access to critical technologies, one that regimes like MTCR seldom give credit to the leadership of Putin.One of the clearest cases of such deep state intervention was in Ukraine, where a take over of the manufacturer of the super heavy lift An 225 aircraft engines, https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Ukraine-blocks-Chinese-takeover-of-jet-engine-maker-on-US-urging was thwarted by the same regime that was facilitating India’s rise by collaborating over Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles and Geo Stationary Launch Vehicles. It is Russian selectivity that has ensured that Su 30 MKIs are one of the few platforms that can carry supersonic missile like Brahmos under-slung and demonstrate capability in anti shipping role! So every time the Westerndom fulminates over Russia going rogue, or like how Biden as president used the word ‘killer’ to describe Putin, it is cringe worthy, because more blood is on the hands on every single POTUS than cumulatively on Putin, and many of US strikes and operations are not even close enough to be identified as genuine in self interest, often performed like a mercenary hire either for Israel or Saudis!
Despite all the push of the NATO led Western compact, Russia has not fallen into the embrace of CCP China so far. Within the Western Compact, Germany and even UK have a different view on Russia than the one across the Trans Atlantic, though the White Hall offers a divided one, cut up over Putin’s high profile assassinations carried out on British soil! Not just with a successful caper that thwarted Chinese access to near Earth (LEO) satellite launch capability for its Beidou Satellite Navigation system, but even with Nord Stream gas pipeline projects, Russia has helped wean EU from dependency on the Gulf, allowing the NATO to take a more objective view of Islamic terrorism, influencing a vastly different view of not just ISIS but even Al Qaeda. It has helped forge a different EU aspect to the Syrian crises, a Palestinian angle into the Israeli matrix and even a Human Rights angle to the EU’s dealing with both China and West Asia. This despite the Trump Presidency being at odds with EU over the Nord Stream projects, trying to turn the tap off from what it views Russia’s control of Europe’s energy requirements. So instead of viewing Nord Stream https://www.gazprom.com/projects/nord-stream2/ as a lever into the heart of EU, if the Americans can view it as Russia’s fundamental underlying commitment to Western Civilisational Project, they could live with and in fact use the 110 billion cubic meters of gas per year as a security guarantee for Europe to take a more strident civilisation view over the repressive regimes in both West Asia and as CCP China. A moral grand standing that would offer the respectability for Western Compact to gang up against CCP China and prevent her from overtaking the USA as the foremost economic and scientific power of our global order by 2030-2050!
There is a angle of the Arctic ‘continent’ where the melting of ice in summer makes the way for navigation through the polar circle, the shortest distance over seas, to link American continent with Chinese ports. That is why China despite being a geographically non Arctic nation, still claims a legitimacy to be counted as one, without even counting for Chinese owned and operated ports coming up in Iceland, bids in Greenland and Canada, so that Chinese commerce can continue unimpeded when the Arctic waterways are navigable. Climate scientists predict that by 2030, for more than 9 months of the year, these waters will be navigable, which was in renewed spotlight when the Ever Green temporarily choked the Suez Canal last fortnight. The Arctic rivalry between the Chinese and the Russians could be exploited by NATO if only she scaled back a bit on American ambitions to dominate the Arctic high seas and airspace, considering how legitimately and logistically Russian claims over the stretch adjoining her northern borders would be difficult to deny and costly to contest. That is why the Biden Administration’s review of Arctic territories and the opening up of trade routes through it is important, for American import of Chinese goods the present Pacific route is ideal, considering the major ports of China and the great Pacific ( American West Coast) State of California are actually in the same littoral neighbourhood. Now even if the Arctic opens up, it offers no advantage to US transit Coast to Coast that would beat the advantage of Panama Canal. This absence of criticality of the Arctic thaw to America allows President Biden to take a more pragmatic view, especially so when he is launching an ambitious all American Infrastructure plan for 2 trillion $ US that could rival FDR’s New Deal!
So if you can place a context to Russia’s Foreign Minister posing for a photo-op with his Chinese counterpart to show solidarity after a slew of sanctions from the Western compact over Uighur, you can take a more nuanced view of Russian world view as a Trans Atlantic analyst even! There is also the case for Indians here, to play up their proximity with Russia and much self interest in weaning Russia away from CCP China, even while offering the West to act as a back channel with Russia. It would be India’s greatest diplomatic triumph and strategic arrival, if she can continue to engage with Russia even as she cosies up to America, and by delivering a counter point to that section in the West that wants to push Russia into China’s hands, keeping the Russians neutral or even ‘pro India’ or miraculously ‘pro West’. That is why however tempting it may be to re-float the balloon of democratic uprising in Russia and her near abroad, the Western Compact should prefer status quo of known knowns, rather than deal with unknowns in the contest ahead with CCP China.
Will India deliver for herself and the West? Will Russia remain as charged and determined under Putin as after? What will Russian system be in 2032? While working on the challenges before them, the Anti CCP China coalition must work on two succession scenarios with contingency plans immediately as a unified approach- the Putin Succession Question is one, the other is the Dalai Lama Succession! Both are key to containing China’s global ambitions!
In how this Pandemic world has worked with the Russians over the Sputnik V vaccines https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/covid-19-vaccine-india-may-become-a-manufacturing-hub-for-russias-sputnik-report-6716781.html we can see the current fault lines https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/sec-defers-decision-on-sputnik-v-vaccine-asks-dr-reddy-s-to-provide-more-data-11617289534540.html, we can see clearly an India undertaking an urgent review of her Russian game, one where she realises that she can play diplomatic ballet without thinking of them as Russian roulette! She can adapt her NAM pragmatism to the CCP China Containment Strategy working as a bridge between the two erstwhile Cold War foes by allying with both, guided by PM Modi’s call for #Atmanirbharta (Self Reliance)! By coopting Russia,( through EU and India) the Western Compact backed Quad Plus will have the necessary legroom to close in faster on the Chinese, than by keeping her out!
indiarubberman.com 