India-US- China:
THREE IS Company or Crowd?
Introduction
1. From patrol boats patrolling the Malacca straits(i), to building 5 million tonne 15 day oil demand as crude storage at Mangalore and Vizag, to acquisition of PHALCONs, gun locating radars , heavy artillery (Bofors), Hum-vees(ii), Hawk Jet trainer, Aircraft carrier Gorshkov, to rationalising the strategic command backed by AGNI, Nuclear submarines and Mirages. LCA, ALH, research in Nano technology, liquid crystals, and lasers show maturity in strategic thinking. Signing of agreements such as BIMSTEC(iii), Free Trade Agreements, ASIAN ROAD NETWORK, are indication of keenness to acquire muscle. India always a super power in culture, is now acquiring the other two teeth of military and economics in a rapid fashion. The Buddha has always been the vehicle of Indian superpowerdom in the past with Padmasambhava, Nagarjuna, Ashoka’s progeny Sangamitra, and Mahendra spreading the faith to south east Asia, Sri Lanka, and China paving the way for Indian influence in art culture and way of life. Even the great Cholas supported Buddhism along with Hindu temple building in South East Asia. Then in 1974 when Indira’s India went Nuclear she chose to phrase it as “The Buddha smiled”! And the Buddha smiled once more in 1998 (Shakti series of tests). So India’s quest for a voice in the world is interlinked with the Buddha.
This article will attempt to define the imperative basis for a new India-US-China paradigm. Chiefly if this three way superway is good company or a bit too crowded!
A Peep into the past!
The past has a way of putting things into perspective, and in the broad sweep of history older nations India and China have a history of intense interactions.
2. The Buddha has been our messenger to the oldest neighbour and partner, and post’62 adversary CHINA. CHINA, long termed `Zhongguo’, the Middle Kingdom, perhaps Middle Earth of Tolkein’s Lord Of the Rings was inspired from here, is the centre of the universe to its inhabitants. Even as the `three gorges’ dam seeks to submerge most of the intricate caves and taverns that hosted Chinese Buddhist monks for centuries, there is a large section of China both academic and lay that does not hesitate to acknowledge this inheritance. Not many are aware that Chinese alphabet was created by Brahma and Kharu who lived in Tienchu (India) and Tsangchia codified them in China. (As mentioned in Tao-shih’s Fa-Yuan-chu-lin, written during the Tang Dynasty(iv) China’s intellectual source was west in those eons before Christ too as per this couplet from `Tang kao-seng-chuan’.
“Away from chang-An monks go west to learn,
Out of a hundred no ten do return”.
3. According to venerated Sinologist Tan Yun-Shan, Shou-wen of the Tang Dynasty formulated 36 alphabets purely on the basis of Sanskrit words and then created a revolution in pronunciation, sounds and rhymes of Chinese words.
4. China also learnt from India many methods of manufacture, building of pagodas, statues, and the practice of frescos. China has an unmatched translated compendium of ancient Indian works. But Chinese greatness lay in their ability to use Indian concepts and refine or enrich them to build towering concepts such as the essence of Cha’n (Zen), Platform Sutra of Hui-neng. At Shaolin Nagarjuna’s introduction of ‘kilari payetu’ was raised into a new genre of Chinese martial arts, both armed and unarmed. Of course the Chinese have the distinction of building the largest man made object visible even from space- the Great Wall!(v).
5. An unknown Britisher in the 1840s visited China to remark, “If we could only persuade every person in China to lengthen his shirt tail by a foot, we could keep the mills of Lancashire working round the clock”. After opium wars, Hong Kong, Macao and much more, the mills of Lancashire are history. In 1979, 5 years after India’s Buddha smiled the first time, Deng Xiaping declared as long as cats caught mice; their colour did not matter. Today China is the fastest growing economy in the world with 2/3rd of world investments, and 2nd largest share of world trade. Shenzhen, Zhuhai Shantou, Xiamen and Hainan are like `Goldrush of the West’ with prospectors of business swarming.
6. The PLA is modern with the nuclear triad in place. China has purchased Moskit (supersonic missile like Brahmos) Sukhois, Israeli radars, and sensors, hi-tech and is making plans to expand and upgrade its Naval combat arm.
7. The crowning return of Hong Kong and Macao, the building of Karakoram Highway, the settlement of borders with Russia along Omsk river and her engagement with India in Strategic Dialogue, has signaled China’s willingness to claim Superpowerdom. The most stellar picture of the Chinese Taikonaut Yang returning to earth after orbiting in space was her way of stating that the Middle Kingdom had arrived.
8. USA, a nation born out of `no taxation without representation’ 52 Starspangled Banner, the preeminent superpower of the day, Inheritor of Britain’s strategic legacy has a fascinating story. By comparisons she’s the child. But being young, she was quicker with her feet & grasped Hegel’s spirit theory that defined “History as the unfolding of Spirit (REASON) and stated that nation state unlike other communities, possesses a self consciousness because it involves the production of History in its very progress. And having attained `Self consciousness’ it stands at the end of History”. America outclasses all nations militarily, its dollar is the mode of world trade; it is the biggest market, manufacturer and trading partner in the world. American culture as defined by a mix of Quaker values, African American brotherhood and `country’ pragmatism, with assimilation of values of liberty, Justice and freedom from the French revolution, made her the torch bearer of freedom. America is open to new ideas, and a naked pursuit of self-interests. Hollywood, ‘pop iconry’, fusion of music, prodigious science that made Neil Armstrong take a small step for man, a giant leap for mankind, from frontiers of Hi tech, from Microsoft to Microwaves, America’s most ubiquitous presence apart from Tin cans of `US Aid’ is the `Jeans’! She altered the results of WWI & II by her interventions, won the Cold War and now wages the War on Terror.
9. With foundations by Teddy Roosevelt (Panama Canal), Franklin Roosevelt’s coalition across the Atlantic (NATO), and Reagan’s star wars; a consistent policy of self interest in foreign policy as founded by John Kenneth Galbraith, America is left today unequalled. After Rome Pax Americana rules the military and the popular cultural waves; just as the medieval world wanted Roman citizenship today the US Green Card is the most sought after identity.
10. India’s religion and philosophy, China’s ethics and arts, America’s pool of Scientific talent, technology and material prosperity are all potent tools that give each foot holds that convert to strangleholds on world stage.
Which way will the three go?
“High is the mountain
I gaze in wonder
Though I can’t be there
My mind goes yonder!” Suma – Ch’ien (Han dynasty)
A perspective view of interactions:
11. Chinese-Indian interactions are vividly recounted by “Eu-Kuo-Chi” Records of Buddhist Nations by Fa-shien, “Si-Yu-Chi”(Records of Western Kingdoms by Hsuan-Tsang), by the records in the Gupta court of the ancient as well as medieval areas. In modern times Tagore visited China in 1924 and was hailed as “Chu Chen tan” (`the Indian sun and thunder’), he was so venerated that the Chinese arranged an audience with Pu-yi the ex-emperor for the poet-sage in the Forbidden Place(vi).
12. Tagore’s disciple Professor Tan-Yunshan was instrumental in setting up the Cheena-bhawana at Shantiniketan’s Vishwabharathi on 10 April 1937. It was an attempt to renew the Sino Indian cultural exchange. The Buddhist Tripitaka, the World’s largest collection of works in Sanskrit and Pali, translated in Chinese is China’s return gift to India that she faithfully took care of our heritageTen copies of it were gifted by China (each 414 volumes, each volume larger than encyclopedia Britannica then!) to India at that time.(vii).
13. India send a team of doctors to assist China’s War against Japan (Dr Kotnis was one who stayed behind and died in China!) in 1936-45. Nehru launched the ‘China Day’ movement, calling for a boycott of all Japanese goods as president of the Indian National Congress of 1936-37 to express solidarity with the besieged Chinese people. The Dalai Lama send letters to Mahatma Gandhi (in Tibetan), Professors Ting Hsi-ling, Hsich Pin-hsin, Chang-chun-mai all visited India in 1940s & 50s.
14. Independent India under Nehru signed the Famous Panchsheel. Despite the nadir of the border war of 1962, China and India picked up threads with Vajpayee’s visit in 1979 as FM, then Rajiv Gandhi’s famous 140 second handshake with Deng Xiaopeng in the 80’s followed by Narasimha Rao and Vajpayee as Prime Ministers recently. This year even as China belligerently demanded the return of Taiwan (considers it a renegade province) Diaoyu (Senkaku) islands from Japan as part of its one – China policy, it has increased its geo strategic presence with Gwadar (Pak), Kokos, (Myanmar), West Africa (Mozambique, Gabon), she has made friendly overtures to India. Her defence minister Gen Cao Gangchaun has proposed joint naval exercises in South-China Sea, Indian Military observes to Umpire Chinese PLA exercises in the Mainland. China has awakened to possibility of a US, India strategic partnership and so has roped India in along with Russia as part of the Shangai Triad. She has restrained herself during OP Parakram and tried to distance herself from Pakistan ever since the War on Terror.
With America :The old with the new!
15. America’s pursuit of continuing Dominance mandates that she engage with both China and India. Both are part of her strategic partnerships, China ever since the Nixon Era of ping-pong diplomacy (Kissinger) in 70s, and India since the Clinton Era. (Under the Strobe Talbott-Jaswant Singh Talks) Afghanistan, the war on Terror and Iraq there is new convergence amongst the three.
16. India has supped with the US for the missile defense plan, and then laid out the red carpet for the Afghan campaign after the terror strikes of 9/11.And then upped the ante by inviting Iran’s president Mohammad Khatami just as Bush labelled Iran as part of the “Axis of Evil”. Or when Saddam was famously “got him” India simply ‘noted’ it! Despite the bumpy ride on 12Jan 2004 Next Steps in Strategic Partnership(NSSP) were announced by the two heads of state. The Rice-Mishra rounds focus on transfer and cooperation in high technology, like the patriot missile system, computer simulation and missile defence, ISRO sanctions to be lifted and US state department space meet with ISRO in Jun2004.
With the Chinese worried about India –America alliance, China is by recognising Sikkim as part of India (China’s ‘world affairs year book 2004’ shows Sikkim as part of India) after the recent Vajpayee visit, and her willingness to play down the Pakistan card trying to level the playing field. India is wooed by China to be part of the “Trilateral dialogue” along with Russia even as India herself branches out to form new alliances like the IBSA(India-Brazil-South Africa) dialogue forum to join which is a clamour of EU, Russia, China and others! It is the economy stupid! Added to the chance of UN Security Council expansion incorporating the trio spread across three continents with vibrant scientific and industrial base. And in all this a great game is unravelling. According to Ban Yue Tan (June 2001) a Chinese weekly the US seeks to break up the ‘Russian proposal for strategic cooperation between Russia, China and India.’
In a recent article for the Washington Post(Sunday, 11 April 2004) ‘ Forget Europe. How about these allies?’ Thomas PM Barnett asked for the US to seriously consider partnerships with China, India and Russia and to rope the Two Asian Giants into the Iraq imbroglio!
Though China voted along with UN against unilateral action in Iraq, she did not obstruct the US in the Gulf. Most importantly at the same time she stepped into Korean crisis and restrained North Korea. As Pakistan’s mentor, she stepped in to ensure that Pakistan came clean on nuclear trafficking ensuring that Pakistan was not embarrassed beyond a point. India allowed Parliament to vote supporting Saddam when within weeks the regime was ousted. She then negotiated with USA on specific terms for sending troops there, holding firm when her requirements were not met. That the US was grateful to China for Korea and Dr Khan, and desperate yet understanding regarding Indian troops in Iraq shows how the Asian neighbours have come along the road!
The Logic For Future Relations
17. Yet geo politics is a strange place. The top seeks to be lonely up there, or just wants tame support. Just as Tony Blair discovers how he has been sidelined in West Asia even as America deals with Israel alone and sanctions its targeted assassinations of Hamas leaders, America’s most allied Ally Britain gets a taste of American Foreign Policy .
18. The US has granted MNNA to Pakistan, is it `mannah’ to our neighbour, making her see sense and responsibility to solve Kashmir and settle for peace with us, or will it provoke a revisit to 1965? China continues her clandestine involvement in Pakistan’s arms industry and nuclear weaponisation in violation of MTCR and NPT. Pakistani leaders continue to use Chinese Podia to speak out on Kashmir.
19. India too is acutely involved in this great game. On the one hand she holds Tibet’s population and leadership while making suitable noises acknowledging China’s paramountcy on Tibet. She has signed for border traffic through Sikkim and participates in the Asian Road Network linking Tokyo to Istanbul. This will be the new Silk Route! While her navy exercises with US and Chinese navies in South China Sea turn by turn; she is also expanding a rail network via Myanmar upto Vietnam. She has plans to expand her influence in the Indian Ocean so that it no longer remains notionally Indian. In this she is encouraged by USA and the Paccomm (US Pacific Command) actively exercises her navies and paratroopers with India. The patrolling of Malacca strait has been actively pushed for by the USA.
20. India has strategic economic partnership with China, Mexico and Brazil and stalled the Cancun Round of WTO tasks, much to the discomfort of the US. She has successfully challenged patents in the WTO and US courts on indigenous Knowledge such as Basmati,Turmeric and Neem.
21. She is increasing her Aid to Afghanistan, actively encouraging her immediate neighbours to develop and is involved in Western Africa (Guinea, Ivory Coast) besides her continued involvement in sub-Saharan Africa. She is a strategic buyer/partner with Israel,South Africa, France, UK and Germany besides her greatest friend and ally Russia.
22. “Sama Vyayamau yogakshemayoryonih” (6.2 verse Arthashastra). ‘The welfare of the state depends on its adopting a policy on non-intervention or overt action’ has been the corner stone of India’s foreign policy. China’s is based on Confucius Pragmatism, nuanced by alternative posturing and silence, and founded on Sun Tsu’s `In peace prepare for War, in War prepare for Peace’ credo.
23. Yet between India and China there is much common ground. Emerging powers, China ahead now and India catching up fast, their common cultural values if suitably advanced make them brothers. Chinese `Jet’ (perfect virtue). Indian Ahimsa, The Wu-Chiang (five laws) of Confucius (Jen-benevolence, Yi-uprightness, Li-propriety, Chih-Wisdom, Hsin-faithfulness) is similar to Mahavira and Buddha’s Pancha Silani (Truth, pure life, non killing, non stealing, chastity) and Astanga Yoga invoke character and vigorous self-discipline. Yoga is as popular as Taichi, Dyana as much as Zen. Both stress right connections, India has ‘Jugaad’, China – ‘Guanxi’!. Both countries are using the Diaspora route to access the levers of National policy in the USA. For the USA, Chinese and Indian H1 visa workers contribute in technology, software and Chinese and Indian art, culinary fare have enriched the American way of life.
24. In the face of increased globalisation, resultant of the triumph of Capitalism and Freedom. India is ideologically more attuned with her institutional though imperfect Democracy. China remains communist and as the SARS epidemic showed, yet to learn from her follies of total control. Her economic boom has its fair share of controversies like cooking of GDP figures, authors like Gordon Chang have (author of “Coming Collapse of China”) added to profit warnings from MNCs based in China. To add to this China now joins WTO and this is likely to see her share in World trade and production dip in the short term as she meets WTO Stipulations. And she has her bugbear in Taiwan, her burgeoning energy needs and her spat on Spratlys with ASEAN. India has her fiscal deficit; state govts continue to be fiscally irresponsible particularly in the BiMaRu states. Her economy is still dependent on a good monsoon, and with a weak USD, and rupee firming up; her exporters will see a loss of competitiveness. The tough II stage reforms in power, labour, and Securitisation are yet to see the light of the day. Like China’s coast Vs hinterland, India has a North Vs South economic disparity. Unlike China whose tough one child policy has stabilized her population, India shows no such signs. Each and every human Indian target :be it birth rate or child survival ratio are routinely unmet and revised. Yes with President APS Kalam’s ‘Vision 2020’ , a sense of urgency has crept in. But beauracratic delays, beauracratic stranglehold on policy, planning and polity is much in place despite a decade of economic liberalization. And India has her Kashmir and border problems with China.
25. Compared to China India is better poised to deal with her energy requirements. Much of the Gulf and Iran are in proximity and friends. Iran – Pakistan –India oil pipeline is just waiting for Pakistani guarantees. Bangladesh is being advised by all her friends to sell gas to India, and Oil majors are actively exploring offshore. India is actively investing in Sudan, Guinea Bissau, Iraq and many other places for her future Oil needs. India has her IITs, her IIMs and her Judiciary. If a 3rd green revolution, Agricultural finance, Crop insurance, an education reform and most urgently a dramatic restructuring of her legal framework takes place India can disprove her doubters. The proverbial Elephant can Dance!
26. Hopefully USA, China & India can remain competitive without getting into conflict. With accommodation, restructuring of the UN, greater democracy in international polity, as well as within China herself, the trio can maintain the tandem of harmony. Here the new 25 strong EU, resurgent Russia, South Africa, Brazil can all play a stablising role. In case the top gets too crowded then both USA and China know that temporally India lags behind and so India will be wooed to ally. In that she benefits from both. And perhaps India can again produce that Moral leadership that made her even as a colony, a giant torchbearer for mankind. To quote Stephen Cohen from his book ‘India Rising’: “What will India do with its new power? Since the heady days of Nehru, all Indian leaders have proclaimed a special destiny or mission for India in Asia and the world based on the greatness of its civilisation, its strategic location and its distinctive view of the world. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s leaders are no exception and the 1998 series of nuclear tests were a way of stating India’s ambition to be taken seriously as a major power…. India is not a great power in the classic sense; it cannot challenge America’s military or economic strength. But in a transformed international order, its assets and resources are more relevant to a wide range of American interests than they have been for 50 years. They cannot be safely ignored in the future as they have been in the past.”
As if to counter this former Indian Army Chief Gen Padmanabhan has written a book “Writing On The Wall: India Checkmates America in 2017AD”. The book argues that while India may take long to catch up on presently used parameters of military-economic power, however in the new leapfrogging world of nanotechnology, cryotechnology, and cybertechnology, India may prove more than equal to the task. Of course there is a big ‘IF’ that like the Chinese Indians have to be infectious in their national passion, focussed totally on nation building. Ofcourse India will instinctly play to her natural strength of seizing the moral high ground, only she will get serious listeners due to her GDP growth rates. However a new paradigm has seized the world in the light of globalisation. The concept of a global citizen and a world sans frontiers is taking shape in intellectual spheres. Increasingly thinkers have come to argue that nationalism is the bane of conflict resolution since the sense of justice is swept aside in the sweeping logic of “my country, right or wrong!” and this has a spill over in the political sphere as well.’
National sovereignty gets into debate in Europe as EU strengthens over a course of time. National sovereignity is getting notional and international conflict may whimper away into oblivion. Here the renewal of Sino-Indian syncretism will then show the path even as EU hints at a South Asian Union down stream.Perhaps a distant noble thought “vasudeva kutumbakkam”(one world family) may find a modern echo!
27. To quote Gurudeva Rabindranath Tagore on civilisation:
“But I do not despair, as an early bird, even while dawn is yet dark, sings out and proclaims the rising of the Sun, so my heart sings to proclaim the coming of a great future, which is already closed upon us. We must be ready to welcome this new age. There are some people, who are proud wise and practical who say it is not human nature to be generous, that man will always fight one another, that the strong will conquer the weak, and there can be no real moral foundation for man’s civilization. We cannot deny the facts of their assertion that the strong have their rule in the human world, but I refuse to accept this as a revelation of truth. It is cooperation and love, mutual trust and mutual aid which make for strength and real merit of civilisation.”
This in a sense is the gist of the Indian argument on civilisational space in contrast to the Nazi ‘Liebensraum’ or fascist theory of expansion! This is why India will not hold historical grudge against her colonizers or the recent adversarial attitude of her neighbours. She will persist in presenting her best hand of friend ship and hope to win the hearts and minds of the countries who may seem inimical to the very concept of India.
28. Another poet sage Lao-tze, Chinese, many thousand years ago said: “those who have virtue attend to their obligations; those who have no virtue attend to their claims. Progress, which is not related to an inner ideal, but to an attraction, which is external, seeks to satisfy endless claims. But civilization, which is an ideal, gives us power and joy to fulfill our obligations”.
Conclusion
As seen in the past there are foundations for a peaceful cohabitation of the two ancient neighbours as well as the present potentate USA for peaceful coexistence. However since the usual prejudices are harboured and nurtured we can see that US and China are into the Great Game of wooing India and the naval joint exercises by all three navies in the South China sea shows that each is building capacity so that individual claims are not ignored. However since the fall of Berlin wall and 9/11, we can say that power bloc politics can only change their instruments from military sinew to economic strings. In this regard through WTO as well as regional FTAs individual countries are pursuing their goals. For China and India if this rivalry forces them to bolster their economic policies in favour of greater trade and integration with global economy as it must then this very economic relationship will prune their national ambitions. This nuclear age and the age of cyber matrix has meant an end to armed conflict as we perhaps knew it. Posturing, weaponisation and technological advances in military are the only methods of conveying a strong arm in conventional terms. The rest is left to the bourses, the media bosses, and the money bags.
Thus three at the top may be a crowd but they will perhaps make room for them to become company. That neither India nor China may go the way of Japan is evident. Both are keen to contribute and influence the global dialogue. So the US will have to take notice and deal with them on terms of mutual respect and equality, something it will have to learn since it has accustomed it self to allies who are convenient to it for well over half a century.
29. Beyond the confines of strategy, real politik and prisms of narrow economic gain, one hopes that true spirit of human endeavour will take this trio of USA, China and India to that end where three is not a crowd but company and the world is but one family. Dear reader I take a leaf from another poet Bhavbhuti “Ye naama ke chidiha nah prathayanti avajnaam, Jaananti te kimapi taan pratinaisha yatnaah Utpatsyetesti mama kopi samaana dharma kaalohyayam niravadhih vipulaa cha prithvee”. ‘Time is eternal, and the world is wide. Somewhere or at some time a kindred soul may be born who will appreciate what I have written even though for the moment, some may decide it as useless.’
REFERENCES:-
(i) Source-Newspapers and Institute of Peace & Conflict Studies
(ii) Times of India,5 Feb 2004 or Shourie ,2004
(iii) Bangladesh-India-Myanmar-Sri Lanka-Thailand Economic Council…
(iv) Cultural Interchange between India and China’ by Tan Yun Shan
(v) Source – from NASA’s JPL imaging radar homepage, and geogreaphy.about.com
(vi) W.Pachow, ‘poet Tagore’s visit to China and Sino-Indian cultural activities.
(vii) W.Pachow “in the footsteps of Xuanzang: Tan Yun-Shan and India.
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