13 February 2021
It was surprising to see how many veterans as military experts took a view different from that of Lt Gen Panag who appeared to be along with Col Ajay Shukla one of the staunchest critics of the handling of Ladakh situation so far. Of course, it is said often, that the person most capable of war, often in reality is the most pragmatic of its consequences, like how Kumbhakarna in Ramayana, or Bhima in Mahabharata appealed for peace on eve of their great battles. So, while I do not think that Gen Panag’s embrace of the Indian initiative to withdraw and to negotiate a peace along the LAC is because he is soft suddenly, it is one imbued with a sense of pragmatism like the heroes of our epics.https://theprint.in/opinion/lac-disengagement-will-ultimately-lead-to-china-giving-up-claims-in-northeast/602710/
So what is happening on ground is that India is now retreating from Kailash Range, a move that has upset many military experts, including veteran Maj Gen Asthana https://twitter.com/WIONews/status/1359906290894426113?s=20 whose views were retweeted by USI, which is a formidable think tank largely of military veterans with extensive links and exposure to serving military officialdom. Further, as Mr Rahul Gandhi was pointing out in his press conference, India is now giving up patrolling in Finger 4 area, while in return PLA is supposed to treat Finger 8 to Finger 4 as ‘no go zone’ or ‘buffer. It is rumoured that similar ‘buffers’ are being demarcated and will be announced in other sectors, all of which will now be carved from within Indian side of the LAC. Further India will commit to not deploy armour in Depsang plains, not occupy Y junction in that area which the PLA had occupied to choke our access to DBO sector beyond. It appears that Indian Army’s failure to counter occupy in Depsang sector because they were taken utterly by surprise has given the Chinese a clear upper hand in this crucial area that abuts the Siachen Glacier and China’s occupied Aksai Chin, the only area where the terrain was very favourable to India. This loss along with the giving up of tactical upper hand in Kailash Range is going to rankle for many decades to come.
Still, as Gen Panag appreciated correctly, this current situation where the PLA has agreed to disengage is itself a loss of face for China, because, it cannot declare victory. It effect, India has helped China by disengaging prematurely from the built up Ladakh border, not sweating out the PLA further for a couple of more seasons, which it easily could have. For on India’s side the human cost of occupying the LAC in strength is not as high, as frontier engaged in eyeball to eyeball are those who will be in high altitude area, India had sufficient expertise in occupying frontiers with such elevation, and occupying in winter is tougher compared to summer. For China, the entire area is a high altitude, with plainsmen Han who now form bulk of the PLA being at odds with weather, altitude and any prolonged deployment would have degraded the ability of these troops going forward to engage in active hostilities. It would have been emotionally chastising for a generation of PLA. Already PLA has proved itself not equal to its modernisation targets its 2020 plan being a cropper! For President Xi the bold gamble across Taiwan Straits and in Eastern Ladakh of 2020 now need face saving.
That said, for Modi Government, the deployment and stalemate in Eastern Ladakh was costing both ways, on the exchequer and politically. The urgency to rid this millstone of PLA occupation was therefore twofold. Not a day passed in these last months when the PMO was not reminded that its own posture deprived the Indian military of a counter strike option a full fledged Mountain Strike Corps with a full complement of MMRCA roll out would have offered us in 2020, since both were to be completed by then, when the Modi government first assumed office in 2014. The government winning narrowly in Bihar elections is not lost to the PMO, and now the farmers agitation with the mahapanchayats and the international storm over Twitter are moves that have restricted the hand of the government. Ultimately every aspect of national strategy is imbued with political character, so it is but natural that a draw down was on the cards.
Yet, I did hope that Mr Modi will pull out an ace. After all, Gen VK Singh as a former Chief of Army, had declared that India was as capable and as guilty of transgressing the LAC, making light of LAC transgressions in the process, and raising the prospects of actions by the military to transgress current Chinese PLA positions along the LAC and force a retreat. Also we had news that the army had wound up a plains strike corps and diverted two additional divisions to the Ladakh sector.
The aftermath of Galwan Valley clash was a series of high level defence acquisition decisions, starting from additional artillery, air defence, high altitude clothing and equipment, which came from the US in form of drones, radars and gear. There was decision for IAF which involved buying MiG29s and Su 30s, to make up some essential numbers. To expedite induction of S400 Triumpf systems. Then came the LCA Tejas order for roughly five squadrons worth. There was proposal for equipping an armoured division https://avia-pro.net/news/indiya-rassmatrivaet-gotovnost-kupit-do-500-tankov-t-14-armata-do-konca-goda arrayed in modern ABCT(Armoured Brigade Combat Team) organisational scheme with Armata Tanks ( Russia’s latest MBT in heavy armoured class called T 14) which approximately works to 510 tanks.
So if you see how exposed India’s military was last year by the Chinese moves, you can say, the decision to not raise the MSC or buy the full complement of Rafale now entails only more burgeoning costs, which given India’s typical mentality, would have been supervised and would fructify only under pressure. So as long as the engagement with PLA in Ladakh and elsewhere of the LAC remained, with the concomitant hyperbole generated by its shadow over our polity and bureaucracy, the time bound modernisation of India’s military would happen. But now with the LAC becoming disengaged, we will see no such pressure, already with early indications that PLA was not going to start hostilities first, some of the ‘off the shelf’ purchases were held back, such as the MiGs and Sukhois. There is no sign of the RFP for 114 aircraft which was supposed to be in lieu of the scrapped MMRCA, either as follow up Rafale orders, or as fresh tender open to Russian MiG35s, American F-21s, F15s, F18s.
It is still early days for India’s CDS, so we can say that it is unfair to see how CDS did not weigh in prominently in this crises. Further, we also saw the NSA Mr Ajit Doval getting sidelined, which means that India’s higher defence management continues to be beset with adhocism. It reveals the bureaucracy’s stranglehold over the Executive.
A decision to disengage as contoured by Gen Panag without a clear commitment from China at the level of President Xi- PM Modi signing new border management agreements, would mean India’s acceptance of the 1959 boundaries plan first offered by Chou En Lai and rejected by successive governments till 2021, would be a set back. If the decision to disengage, led to continuing neglect of defence budget by the Finance ministers from 2014 to now, without guaranteed capital support for modernisation, it would be a double whammy. India can still play for China to accept the 1959 line in Ladakh as IB with Mc Mohan line in Central and Eastern Sector, which would be in accordance with the PV Narasimha Rao plan, to not disturb existing populations, which the Chinese seem to acknowledge by their sudden interest in settling villages along the disputed LAC in Sikkim -Bhutan sector and Arunachal Sector.
It is a race now. To settle, improve infrastructure, military modernisation, comprehensive reforms to unfetter India’s animal spirits in macroeconomics and modernise our national security architecture and functioning. Gen Panag feels the we must accept the current disengagement as it offers us a chance to join this race and win it. I feel, if India disengages now, the foot will be off the pedal and all bets are off!
indiarubberman.com 