1 February 2021
The flurry of administrative orders or executive orders that emanated from the White House have more or less reversed the direction of the American State within a fortnight. It demonstrated not how powerful a Presidency is in America after all, but to the larger world, it demonstrated a commitment upholding Biden Presidency, that has run on these issues and has acted on them ASAP. When we talk of strategy in managerial terms as to ‘hit the ground running’ this is what it should look like. Further, there are signs that the larger diplomatic and military strategic environment that had suffered the withdrawal of a ‘typical American response’ got a mixed bag of responses, which indicate that while President Biden is a well versed and dyed in wool American Senator with decades of experience in the field, as President, he is using the office to drive a personal contour, as he tries to make a workable solution for relations from Russia, North Korea, China and Iran, currently the four pillars holding up a kind of inimical sky over Pax Americana.
It was interesting to hear Iranian officials seeking a bargain for the return of the Americans back to the Nuclear Deal first- relaxation of sanctions, before they scale back some of the enrichment they carried out when President Trump pulled out. We are aware that while Trump made noises about China, and toward the end Secretary Pompeo made lot of effort to rally the world against China, we know that these were moves without a concrete reset. So what the American moves now in the making are actually moves that Biden will ensure are noticeably the course correction that the US demonstrates as she rallies her allies toward the impending drawn down with Beijing.
More reassuring to Japan or South Korea is how the Pentagon now offers a network centricity that fighters and drones will on air capture and process centrally, whether they fly the ensign or tail number of Indo Pacific alliance partners or that of the US. The decision to develop the Pacific atolls and isles for runways and to deploy US strategic assets including fighter bombers in such a dispersed mode is perhaps the first clear sign that the Pentagon has got a clear brief of strategic goals and tactical requirements after General Austin took over as DefSec.
The most important influence of President Biden could and should be an enabling presence for democracy in general, freedoms in particular, across continents and the Climate Challenge Agenda of which he just wrested leadership position once more. Not just the Keystone Pipeline, but the decision to follow UK in stopping US investments to explore or harness hydrocarbon fuels abroad, are early indicators that we can expect a major push for switch over to non conventional energy for transportation and power utitlities, though as of now, US will have a huge gap domestically between intent and content. It throws up the prospect that the US could strategically invest in Africa for harvesting rare earths, to look for them aggressively closer home and also work on a recycling strategy that mimics Japan.
So when sufficient evidence is with us that the external posture of the US is now status restored to 2016, what can we expect differently from the world? It would have been otherwise a major headline that Myanmar has had a ‘coup’ with top leadership of government, including the President and Ms Aung Sang Su Ki being taken into custody by a military action that has started from yesterday morning. Protracted US neglect and differing views on treatment of Rohingya refugees with South Asia have weakened further the influence the Americans had, howsoever weak it was, with Myanmar. So while routine condemnation and a promise to watch proceedings is diplomatic, a more pragmatic realism from Biden Administration would be to not focus on Myanmar till the situation becomes clear and may be, the Obama Way of allowing regional stakeholders to first weigh in, was and is the Biden Approach? Ms Suu Kyi unfortunately lost much of her political capital internationally when she stepped in to defend the Myanmarese military in ethnic cleansing operations in the North and North East of that country. Just right now, most countries would be thankful if they were isolated physically from the rest of the world due to the pandemic or actively promoting such isolation by banning on incoming traffic for foreseeable future as New Zealand and Polynesia have done. So isolating Myanmar is not going to really be a perturbation for that country or its junta that is likely to formally announce its leadership after it was ‘disappointed with the November elections last year that returned the Suu Kyi led NLD, which the military had termed ‘fraudulent’! More importantly right now, when Myanmar has clawed out of the Chinese trap somewhat, the US would not want to rock the boat and push it back into Chinese tentacles. It is clear that the Myanmarese military have deep seated reservations about Daw Suu Kyi and the best thing for her and for Myanmarese democracy would be to move on, she head back to retirement, as a citizen elder and not as a special State Counsellor which was a proxy for the Presidency she was denied by Constitutional Amendment before the junta allowed 2015 elections to happen. That would be actually what it took for the Myanmarese polity to go back to ‘normalcy’ of regular elections. Secondly, democracy would mean allowing more players in the polity, for which the NLD needs to either split or offer scope to others. The military would retreat to the barracks only if it was held back by the monks of Myanmar or if the reassurance was available that Suu Kyi’s legacy would never threaten them with accountability for their past!
Such nuanced and pragmatic view from America as a realism would be the first actual sign of American ‘normalcy’. We have already seen Biden White House release transcript of the calls the President has been making with world leaders, including Mr Putin. We know the US is not using the Navalny arrest to impede the process of establishing ground rules with the Putin regime under Secretary Blinken, au contraire, from the ‘hands off’ approach under Trump Presidency, his speaking out the ‘concern’ for human rights and expressed desire to seek the ‘release’ of Mr Navalny from custody is what would be termed the American normal.
If these trends hold,then we can expect consolidation over the course of this year, and if the domestic Covid19 Pandemic situation is tamed by late Summer as per the plan, with a 100% vaccination roll out, we can expect the US to wrest back some of the initiative Mr Trump had conceded to select countries notably China, Russia, North Korea and Iran while returning relations with them to a more even keel. What remains to be seen is how and when Americans can restore their primacy after four years of listless functioning. With domestic scene indicating that Republican support for Trump likely to persist and domestic divisions within the Congress will be sharpened over it and the Covid Rescue Package Biden Presidency wants desperately, we can conclude that Biden Administration is in a two front conflict management scenario, with enemy within trying to sabotage it from the back, and enemy without as national interests of emerging and has been powers and rogue nations joust for their pounds of flesh, even as US seeks to tame them with its assessed overweening military and economic power! Will Team Biden deliver? Come September we can read the tea leaves…
indiarubberman.com 