24 January 2021
Finally we can begin to gaze away from the most important Western Democratic system and nation state, the USA and focus elsewhere. For actually on 20 January 2021, there were no surprises in the script. Of course we saw American raw power of her popular culture on display all day, starting with pop stars coming to sing the Anthem and the ‘national song’ as Lady Gaga and J Lo did, not to mention Obama’s favourite hymnal Amazing Grace which was graced by Garth Brooks. There was Justice Scotomeyar administering the Oath of Office to VP Kamala Harris, while Chief Justice Roberts administered the oath to President Biden. There was that amazing piece of inspirational poetry from Amanda Gorman called ‘The Hill We Climb’. I stayed up late by my standards to watch this ceremony go off without hitch. I also heard Biden’s sales pitch! As incoming American presidential inaugural addresses go, his was actually not lofty, it was not a song and dance of ideals, rather, why it was inspiring was it had focus. It simply stuck to issues that he had campaigned on, issues with which we can say nearly 81 million Americans voted on their feet with, and if ever there was the shortest gap between talk and walk, it was those Presidential orders that made the USA return to the ‘international fold’ once more, after becoming a kind of pariah of her own making for four years under Mr Biden’s predecessor.
We know the day ended with a gala ‘show stopper’ hosted by Tom Hanks, who is an icon in America, and while it had a melange of performances that depicted popular art and folk in all its diversity, what America never forgot was how three former Presidents ganged up to deliver a short speech offering perspective on transitions and offering their best wishes to the current incumbent of the White House. There are close to 74 million Trump voters, many of them who voted because they were Republican, but quite a few who voted because of Trump, who would have seen the contrast between how Trump was inaugurated in 2017 and how Biden was in 2021! If they needed to know even now why, then they need to actually do more soul searching. Biden Presidency brought a ‘Diwali’ to the world a whole 9 months early it seemed with celebrations and congratulatory messages, crucially these were from a corner of part relief and part hope.
The decisions on the Pandemic were the most important to me, as immediate concerns were if Trump Administration had a vaccine plan and what was the delay in US rolling out the vaccination. If one looked at October when America had crossed the peak and was on a plateau with daily deaths averaging in 700s, to the utter shock of losing 4000 plus in a day by the Inauguration Day, with the cumulative deaths totalling from 200000 to 400000, it appeared that the virus was running away with America’s health infrastructure and poignant as bells tolled 400 times in The National Church in DC and the National Mall held an array of flags to depict the Corona Dead, the remembrances in run up to the festivities of 21 January were to see signal action on the President’s first few hours of office! Mask Mandate, rejoining WHO, offering to support and participate in COVAX programme, the obvious relief with which now Dr Fauci operated when he interacted with the media, his candid confessions to Rachel Maddow on MSNBC are the low hanging fruits. The authorisation of Defence Production Act to cover everything from sanitisers to PPEs to Vaccines and Syringes was the first hard decision. The next would be the Covid package of 1.9 trillion $ US which he needs to get Congress to agree to. Then would come the speed with which he can get ‘shots to arms’, which could receive a big boost once J&J’s single shot vaccine gets EUA authorisation, which Dr Fauci hinted could come as early as first week of February!
Greta Thunberg was relieved that the US is back in the Paris Deal, and may be even Keystone Pipeline Project roll back could be seen as Biden’s commitment to his electoral agenda as Transportation Secretary Nominee Mayor Pete reminded Senator Ted Cruz in his confirmation hearings. If even half of what Mayor Pete offered as his remarks works out, we should see a major push from the Administration for Electric Vehicles and perhaps Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, with clear deadline for fossil fuel wean off! We could also see power generation cut back on coal and move to non conventional non fossil fuel based power sources. Of course, we must be clear that right now EU is the leader in this transformation and it would entail closer EU- US partnership, the kind of in step run the Trans Atlantic world once had when Maggie Thatcher and Ronald Reagan were Heads of Government! It would mean a US more committed to focus and not get distracted as it has been with West Asia and South Asia, as part of its ‘war on terror’.
Perhaps General Lloyd Austin who has taken over as DefSec hinted as such when he offered his remarks over Pakistan in his confirmatory hearing. Re-engaging with Rawalpindi through Pentagon was a belated recognition that the Taliban is going to understand only the ISI and the language of Jihad, a kind of resignation to ground reality, on the face of it. Being a former CentCom commander himself, DefSec Austin would be aware of the historical military alliance the US has had with Pakistan that lasted the better part of 7 decades, which soured along with the degradation of the US mission in Afghanistan. Yet, I would not rule out that if US needed leverage against China, then having one through Pakistan is not a bad idea. I mean, if you wanted to have all cards on the table, you just designated Uighur ( done by outgoing Secretary Pompeo) as a genocide, then you might like to take a look, a serious look at options, for if Afghanistan was the Waterloo to Soviets, then so could Uighur be to the CCP! Who better to start a assembly line of insurgents than Pakistan? We will get a confirmation, when the first Pakistani general comes to the Pentagon for a briefing and its follow up by the visit of a senior Pentagon official to GHQ Rawalpindi, as early as March 2021!
If you thought Biden’s agenda has a coalition of democracies, that he would come down on regimes that did not offer the best foot forward to freedom and liberty, and he would want to offer a credible alternative to Chinese people and the Russians, the moves were not really behind closed doors. The first indicator is Navalny’s return and arrest on arrival in Moscow. The protests in Russia and the detention of his wife overnight, are indications that Russian opposition fancies a more credible US backing. You can see how EU Parliament was quick to make a posture on the Nord Stream 2 project, calling for a halt to construction conditional to Navalny’s release. Suddenly Putin is looking vulnerable.WHO team is visiting China to scour the CCP’s carpets and discover the source of the Covid19 Pandemic, and while there, we hear news of some 100 million Chinese now placed under lock down. Brazil wakes up to criticise the Chinese vaccines’ efficacy, claiming that it has performed poorly in that country so far. I would not like to think the current posture of the Indian Government on the Farmer Agitation has any link to the Biden effect, though it is tempting for some ‘liberal leaners’ to venture into that space. Yet, even if not perceptible overtly, I can sense that authoritarian regimes of Russia and China are now going to be on the backseat and as President Biden has indicated, the key elements of foreign policy posture on China would remain unchanged, as would the increasing cooperation with India. The presence of a representative of Taiwan at the inauguration did not go unnoticed, nor the mention of the Pope and the call to the Catholic faithful, so we have a multi spectral multi dimensional outreach that was launched on 21 January that could take us globally into ‘familiar’ territory!
Yet, America has emerged scarred from the events of 6 January. We know now that General Flynn brother of disgraced former NSA Mike Flynn ( himself a four star general) was in the Pentagon when requests were received for assistance from the Capitol and the state of New Jersey wanting to render assistance. Pentagon initially denied this was so for General Flynn was not in the chain of command for such a task, but later admitted that he was present and has not denied if he acted in a manner inappropriate or unauthorised. The second disturbing input is how a Congresswoman and may be a few more Representatives were involved in conducting a tour of the Capitol just prior to 6 January storming by insurrectionists. It is now confirmed by FBI that Oath Keepers, Bogaloo, Proud Boys, and many more White Supremacist and Q Anon Conspiracists were involved in a clear plot to thwart the legislative agenda of the Congress on that day. It was premeditated and now the speeches of President Trump are being quoted by those arrested, including some ring leaders who sought ‘pardon’ from President Trump for they were merely doing his bidding! We know that VP Mike Pence was just a few feet away from being taken and hung in the Capitol Grounds, we also know that Speaker Pelosi and some other Congresswomen were targets, their offices were looted, laptops stolen and more importantly, one office belonging to Representative Ayanna Presley had all its ‘panic buttons’ removed! So from all angles, this was a coup, and Trump needs to be dealt with as a failed coup leader. Every effort will be made by Trump to muddy this clarity by twisting it into electoral plot, by trying to black mail Republican senators by threat of ‘primary’ing them if they voted to convict him. President Biden will not do a Carter and Pardon Trump, that much is for sure, while he will not ‘go after him’ in the manner Trump tried to and failed with his ‘Lock Up Hillary, Lock Up Obama’ stuff! I still feel that a Republican refusal to convict Trump would weaken the Democracy project that Biden wants to leverage against China desperately. Remember, Biden Administration would be conscious of Jack Ma’s reappearance, albeit in a mere 43 seconds, contrasted against his 3 month long vanishing act, as an indication of President Xi’s acknowledgement of the return to the world scene of Big Brother America! The stakes are very high for USA and for Democratic Liberal Forces globally in this strategic joust between the CCP and the Western Compact. An old hand in Senate and as VP, President Biden personally knows how the odds stack up and how arduous will be this ‘Hill’ he must ‘climb’!
indiarubberman.com 