Drone Clone!

21 November 2020

The essential cannon for a practising pacifist is to prepare for strife, to be always on the lookout for the newer manifestations of military modernisation. After the Second World War, one of the keener and internationally wider acceptances of international conduct of conflict, has been the desire to limit human losses, collateral as well as troops, making a marked shift from attrition to manoeuvre as a strategy and consequence of this philosophy.

While today international observers and policy wonks can talk past the use of mines, let us not forget how at one time, mines both tactical and as antipersonnel were once considered a technological advancement and area denial stratagems, which fell out of favour thanks to a concerted campaign to ban their use by civil society. At one time, the drone warfare which President Barrack Obama had grown quite fond of, and used liberally in the AfPak regions was similarly under threat, after it had thrown up instances where weddings and ceremonial gatherings were targeted as part of an effort at ‘capital strikes’ on Taliban leaders. Of course, the campaign against use of mines was largely a charismatic one, at one time it included not just the most influential Pope of our Age, John Paul II but also the People’s Princess, England’s Rose as the eulogy sung at her funeral called her- Lady Diana Spencer! What it shows is not how technology can change warfare systems and approach to military strategy, but also how public opinion can change the use of mines and even reduce the calibre of rifling on assault weapons so that the aim is not to kill but maim the enemy.

There are some videos out there of the recent Nagarno Karabakh strife, which I would call the skirmish between two neighbours Azerbaijan and Armenia stoked by Turkey and hoped to be contained by Russia. While people make comparisons in India to Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, this ‘autonomous region that is ethnic Armenian’ is different from it as chalk and cheese. No one in the international comity of nations questions the territorial sovereignty of NK region which is with Azerbaijan, only the EU and Russia ( for once both are on the same side) want autonomy of the region formalised and allow this to be an enclave with local administrative control of ethnic Armenians who have lived in this region for centuries. In the first of the skirmishes, which happened in 1993, the Armenians held the upper hand, actually annexing areas adjoining the NK enclave, like Agdham, Kalbacar/Karvachar and Lachin, which were areas belonging to Azerbaijan. It is these that the Armenians are surrendering back, not without their version of the Soviet scorch earth policy, as seen in the demolitions carried by retreating Armenian military units in Agdham. So in this 44 day campaign the Azeris were able to reverse the military losses of 1993, extract the Armenian concession to return all occupied districts outside the NK enclave which it had controlled since 1993, plus a major municipality of Shusha. The military setback to Armenia https://www.euractiv.com/section/azerbaijan/opinion/how-did-the-second-karabakh-war-change-armenia-and-azerbaijan/ is something which folks world over were taken by surprise, not appreciating how the economic performance of a fossil fuel exporter like Azerbaijan and how Azeri military managed to get upgraded and defeat their rivals in this ‘revenge campaign’ is not the full picture. There is lot of misinformation as well as input in OSINT on social media platforms, which shows how the Azeris used irregulars possibly Islamic militants from Sudan, from AfPak region and even Syrian or which is not officially conformed by them. Likewise videos show how drones were used extensively by the Azeris to derail the advance of armoured columns, for which the counter missile strike by Armenians over Ganja turned out to be a strategic and diplomatic disaster, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/17/casualties-after-armenian-attack-targets-ganja-live-updates which did nothing to relieve the pressure on Armenian military forces. It was to produce a condemnation by the Turkic Council, an organisation of ethnic Turki which includes Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgzstan and ideally should include Uighur Autonomous Region as well, along with Turkmenistan. Turki ethnic origin people are also found in Afghanistan, in India and Bangladesh, ( Mughals, Sher Shah, et al) and brought the French, Americans and Russians to rally behind the Azeris and force Armenia to a truce.

Drones which saw action in the limited version edition of this year back in 2016 which is dubbed the Armenian-Azerbaijani Drone War of 2016, which was the first demonstration of Turkish military ambitions, using UAV industry which is state of the art backed technologically by Israel. Not just content with Turkish versions, Azeri military acquired Israeli drones like IAI Harop ( Kamikaze drone) ThunderB, Orbiter 2M, Aerostar, Hermes 450 and Heron 1. Turkish Bayraktar drones too were put into play. In contrast the Armenian drones Krunk (Crane) were no match for this array. Tactical battle field reconnaissance and target acquisition was demonstrated when Azeri ATGMs were able to accurately lock in and destroy Armenian armour elements.

While the current 2020 skirmishes are yet to be fully analysed, preliminary reports suggest that Armenian investments in Anti Aircraft systems including S300 systems paid off initially in repulsing Azeri drone based attacks and advances. However, it is suspected that Turkey used sensors aboard advanced F16 aircraft and satellite support to create a network centric warfare solution as a counter, which aided the Azeris to come back and knock out the Anti Aircraft batteries deployed or arrayed against them. Turkish military experts underplay the use of conventional airpower by promoting a ‘dronization of war’ https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/drones-nagorno-karabakh and supporting the current frenzy amongst theoreticians and military strategists to embrace this as the new revolution in military affairs, where drones are used as substitutes for conventional airpower in area domination, interdiction and destruction of targets, besides offering battle space integration. Really? Is Turkey showing greater advance that the original pioneers in RMA- the USA?

It is clear from the conduct of operations that the Armenian military put up a listless counter to the planned and carefully calibrated offensive of the Azeris. The first round in July which saw Azeri drones countered effectively was actually a probing exercise to pick out Armenian air defence network…That essentially cleared the field for subsequent aerial and area domination by them. However, we know that this was an asymmetrical encounter at many levels, for Armenia’s deep strike capability had no counter from the Azeri side- the Ganja missile strike could easily have been a fusillade of sorts, not just a demonstration of capability, and I still feel that Armenian leadership was very poor at tactical and strategic level, unable to manage the international climate and operate coherently on the developing battle fronts in the disputed areas and territories which it had occupied for last three decades!

What the Americans are working on is a system of systems approach. From ‘Wingman’ of Boeing stable as a drone that would have AI and Network Centricity, flying in formation with F35s much like a blockbuster movie Stealth (2005 release, directed by Rob Cohen) and would be a companion aircraft to a FGFA and would operate more riskier tasks than the manned mate, to swarm drones that would be actually a cluster of drones carried on a drone, much like a moving hive and like hornets swarm out to attack multiple targets either in Kamikaze fashion or emit radar or laser signals to detract or destroy enemy targets, drones are very much part of the RMA. However, the full force of unmanned operational pieces of the military jigsaw of the future is underway as robots on ground and UAV and Under Water Submersible called AUVs, though it is still at experimental stage. I envisage that in near future, the US military will be able to use robotic and remote controlled platforms in near space, in air, on ground and underwater that would offer it a clear edge of actually shielding humans or obviating their exposure to hostile military environments, significantly reducing both the need for boots on ground and the dread of those body bags! So a theoretical future platoon could actually be one or two soldiers who would be mission control with perhaps dozens of such platforms at their controls. We know how F35s are the first of air platforms where each aircraft acts as a gatherer of information as much as a receiver, and it is programmed to enable target designation for other platforms like AA missile battery, IRBMs, artillery cannon or Reapers or Predators as the situation may be, even as it carries out its own missions.

Will US authorities consider enabling AI and autonomous fighting capabilities to drones and other unmanned platforms? A movie series starring Arnold Schwarzenegger – The Terminator explored this very aspect as an apocalyptic event, where human designed technology as the Terminator system proved to be disastrous when it turned autonomous, turning on humans themselves. The way our technology is changing, the gap between SciFi and reality is narrowing, so again I bring you back to where I started this essay- ethical and moral costs of waging war that changed our use of mines, our use of drones, missiles and how countries and militaries will keep pushing the envelope to gain advantage over their potential rivals.

Many in India considered the scenario of Azerbaijan in Karabakh vis-à-vis India in Kashmir, particularly Pakistan occupied Kashmir. Will India invest in unmanned vehicles more? Yes. Should she acquire capabilities that Turkey has and even better closer to Israel? Yes, she should in interest of keeping military options abreast with the latest technological paradigms. But in the near future, we do not have the kind of asymmetry that Azeris had over Armenians to carry off a short 45 day campaign to force Pakistan to vacate Pakistan occupied Kashmir. Unlike the Caucasian conflict, subcontinent showed both Air Forces equal to tasks ordered by their executive, Indians with Balakot Air Strikes, and Pakistanis with Swift Retort. I can say that if India encountered drones from Pakistan, the IAF is more likely to use conventional Air to Air strategies, including manned fighter operations to neutralise the UAV threat from Pakistan. As such, along LAC and along the LOC, we have strict ‘no fly zones’ with both China and Pakistan, which means that any UAV presence or action is going to be clubbed with conventional air strikes and equally escalatory.

Two Pence Takeaway on Drones: It does not mean that the age of the Drones as force multipliers has not arrived. It also does not mean that the Age of Drone Clones has arrived either!