Cold Turkey

10 November 2020

The writing has been on the wall for far too long. Today, the four years of Trump seem to pass by like a movie reel, allowing the viewer to see the parts that may have been missed in the actual blur of happenings, but to a careful observer, not soothsayer, this was apparent all along. The biggest legacy of Donald Trump was to forever destroy the levers that Deep State within the US military industrial bureaucracy had developed and to sow seeds to distrust in alliances trans Atlantic as well as trans Pacific. If ever there was a lesson about institutional strength in Washington DC, then it is this, that America’s true systemic pillars is in her petty county officials, not in these jargon toting high fashioned and sophistry spurring lobbyists who work in the shadows of the vast edifice that is the US Government.

So while we allow America the opportunity to pause and recover her breath as it were, we take a look at Europe which sorely missed an America it just had under Obama- a benign and benevolent power, which looked increasingly at working with traditional adversaries like Russia and Iran and making a play for a world beset with problems beyond the arc of traditional power rivalries. Under Trump, the US walked out of Iran Deal, it didn’t engage with Russia after Crimea, it actually turned its guns on Germany for not ‘doing enough’! It cut force levels in what is the heart of the EU and threatened to relocate to the frontier and more willing erstwhile Warsaw Pact members like Poland, frowning on the Russian German piped natural gas supply called Nord Stream.

Of course, Trump Administration was jolted out by China’s play for the top of the table in 2020, when President Xi declared the domestic Coronavirus situation under control and restored supplies to the rest of the world, launching wolf diplomacy and military manoeuvres in SCS and Straits of Taiwan besides Eastern Ladakh. Till then Mr Trump imagined that he had President Xi and the CCP where he wanted them to be, and overnight, the 5G Huawei and microchips and so many other issues with China became a focussed foreign policy play with Secretary Pompeo travelling and canvassing for the same. Mostly the ‘stridency’ in the rise of China, and partly to US persuasion, most countries swung under the new US concerns. Trump also speeded up the 2 plus 2 talks with India, a country that really warmed up to him, though he stopped short of rewarding it with military hardware and top of the line transfers that he could have in the circumstances where India’s military is now looking to face a harsh winter in the 3rd Pole in Ladakh Himalayan Region. It is also a matter of concern that neither Russia nor USA have been exchanging notes about two nuclear powers in Asia facing off in this fashion, which now clearly looks more long drawn than wound up any time soon! Even here, one could say that the USA was more jolted out from its stupor by Australian initiative and the declaration of its PM Mr Morrison, of a Climate of Strategic Uncertainty.

So within EU, we have Turkey that saw space under Trump to carry out its NATO independent role in Syria, in Libya, in the Aegean, and now in Nagorno Karabakh. It is also unsurprising that Pakistani air force pilots are operating the F16s conducting air superiority operations in the Caucasus and forcing Azeri troops to halt in their counter offensive against Azerbaijani positions. Traditionally, both Turkey and Pakistan have been heavily sponsored and influenced by Pentagon, and today, it must be such a loss of face that the outcomes in the new flash point in Eastern Eurasia suffer from lack of inputs within Pentagon. In Libya the French and the Russians are in a tacit coalition to shore up factions countering the Turkish supported one, in Syria, EU feels the role of Turkey as the gate way to immigration is suspect, stoking and not staging the whole rush to safety by hapless Syrian refugees. In the Aegean, Greece has been bolstered by French supplies of sorely needed hardware, including 10 Rafale jets. Had this been a NATO led by USA, would this series of events actually have played out the way it has now?

What Biden administration will find trans Atlantic is how now France and Germany will be discounting US guarantees, and less willing to follow her lead. What USA will find is local arrangements and alliances gaining more strategic importance compared to existing long distance guarantees. In fact, thanks to the Chinese belligerence, a semblance of Uncle Sam’s shadow still looms over the world, else, Mr Biden could have well found a lukewarm Europe and ASEAN not just Africa. It shows how disruptive and status quo altering the four years of Trump have been. Also, Biden Presidency will now stare at stark choices when it looks at the ‘Ottoman’ Erdogan regime. The fires along the Mediterranean rim and in the Caucasian region all have a Turkish hand. How will the US sort out a NATO partner and strategic ally? After all under Trump, Turkey which is key manufacturing hub for the F35 programme has purchased the Russian Triumpf S400s https://www.ft.com/content/05d54cc8-0560-11ea-9afa-d9e2401fa7ca and there is now going to always be that niggling doubt whether the ‘shield’ knows a trick or two about the ‘spear’! That is how sensitive the Turkish exposure to Russian systems is as a military interoperability issue is. It will make for nagging doubts in minds of aviators who are now on Marine and US IndoPacific Fleet carriers making a dash for the SCS and patrolling the skies over contested reefs, shoals and the straits of Taiwan, whether their F35Bs will remain alien to the S400s deployed by the PLA.

Turkey is also making a play to regain her leadership role as an Islamic nation under Erdogan, with the restoration of the Hagia Sophia as a mosque being the latest in the series of moves to proscribe ‘secular’ Ataturk traditions, scholarships and more. The role of Turkey as the staging ground for the mortal disappearance of Mr Kashoggi and its deep understanding with the Sauds under MBS, the crown prince, is one that would spook not just Israeli or Iranian networks, but is one that will alarm all shades of liberal Islamic traditions from Lebanon to Egypt, even those now stirring in UAE and Qatar.

While resident of White House, President Trump continued with pardoning the turkey a tradition going back since JFK first started to spare the National Thanksgiving Turkey Ceremony bird a tradition started in 1947 under Truman which became under Reagan years a ‘customary pardon’. Yet he was fully aware of another ‘turkey’ he had spared, intentionally, even mentioning it during the ceremony in 2019: “Democrats are accusing me of being too soft on Turkey.” Mr Trump had said then https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/26/us/politics/turkey-pardon-trump.html . Like many other things he knows too well, Mr Trump has left Erdogan’s Turkey as a problem https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/10/trump-erdogan-turkey-conflict-of-interest-halkbank/ on the plate of his successors and friends of America everywhere! How will Biden, NATO and Russia handle this problem of a cold Turkey that is more insular and less enamoured by the West if not downright inimical?