So we are back to a series of demonstrations and protests. Readers would recall, how I have consistently taken the view that Thai State is acting in utter disregard to the simple nature of demand of the people, to be held accountable and answerable to them, and how even in the last decades of the popular and long reigning monarch His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej (whose son His Majesty King Maha Vajralangkorn is now at the centre of the current crises) the Thai military has repeatedly used the monarchy for its own ends, skirting questions of legitimacy when they overthrew popular governments in a brazen manner who actually were headed by members of one family- Shinawatra, sibling Thaksin and his sister Yingluck Shinawatra. So the Thai state in my view was offered one last chance when the current PM who is a military man Prayut Chan-o-cha was attempting to get reelected and the opposition in latest avatar as Thai Raksa Chart presented the Royal sister Princess Ubolratana as its Prime Ministerial Candidate and the Constitutional Court of Thailand struck down her candidacy when it was challenged by the military junta. While the ruling was actually ‘correct’ it failed to recognise the political reality that willy nilly, the monarchy was being repeatedly used to unseat popular governments and bring back military backed regimes. The failure of the monarchy even under an extremely popular ruler such as the previous King, to even once force the military to restore a popularly elected government is what has robbed the royalty of its credentials as an entity that ‘is above politics and to maintain political neutrality, the king, the queen and princesses can never exercise political rights by casting votes’ to quote from this judgement by Judge Nakharin Mektrairat. Now did the State stop there? No. It proceeded to use this opportunity to order a 10 year ban on the Executive Board members of the Thai Raksa Chart party and in effect removed it from the electoral fray!
Thai people have seen something in the Shinawatra ideology of Thai Raksa/ Pheu Thai which are about transferring power from this royal officialdom- military executives- bureaucracy nexus to the people of Thailand in a day to day, practical manner as befitting a democracy with a Constitutional Monarchy. The model was nearly Westminster’s, with a Titular Royal as Head of State and an elected PM as Head of Government. And what we have seen, is repeatedly attempts by vested interests propping the Royalty as a cover to thwart this compact whose time had come. So if you see whittling numbers of pro Royal protestors and overwhelming numbers of the ‘people’s faction who actually constitute the mainstream of politically committed Thai people. I have always felt that a King like His Majesty Bhumibol would have if in full control of his faculties, straddled this chasm with ease and effortlessly transitioned from the Royal Absolutism with which he was enthroned to a Constitutional Monarchy he now preferred. Of course in the early Post World War II era, Monarchy was seen as the bulwark against Communism, elected governments were largely led by military or former military leaders and it is only in the final years of the previous millennia that Thai State was able to accommodate people who were without military background, including the immensely charismatic Thaksin Shinawatra! When Thaksin was unseated by a coup in 2005, the military transition lasted a mere 15 days and an ‘Independent’ was appointed as PM before elections saw the People’s Power party come to office. When his sister Yingluck was Prime Minister, she was unseated after nearly 3 years in office which was followed by present junta leader and PM Chan-o-cha from 22 May 2014.
So it was clear to the core supporters who are farmers, rural Thai people and youth from university campuses, of this movement for genuine representational democracy that the Royalty was more than involved and hence their audacious bid in 2019 to forge an alliance with Royalty itself, where the Princess Ubolratana https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47482040 stated openly that she would renounce her royal status and become a commoner if she was elected to office. It was an attempt by democratic forces to weave a larger coalition of sentimental conservatives for whom Royalty was inviolable and the democratic forces of the new Post Wars and post cold war Thailand. We saw how the Thai State reacted to that move and handed over a victory on a platter to the incumbent Chan-o-cha.
What makes the protests this once much more serious is that the crowds of peaceful protestors have identified the ‘Monarchy’ as the root cause of their current problems. This was a sacred rubicon they never crossed ideologically. So forget calling out the King or using a three finger salute to indicate their displeasure at the King, this time the demand is for Constitutional Reform, that will limit the powers of the Royalty in black and white, which would mean that the King’s power to appoint a Prime Minister would now be notional, that the King would be bound by a code of conduct and Royal affairs would be controlled by an Imperial Agency in the way Japan does. Right now, the mood of the masses is not to replace the Royalty, but if the intransigence continues, positions may harden, and one really wonders if His Majesty Mahavajralangkorn is blessed with advise or ability to appear sagacious and above the fray, using his Imperial prestige to force the Thai military junta to retreat to the barracks.
Ideally, like Malaysia next door, Thai people would not want to let go of their monarchy. But then like Malaysia’s royals, Thai royals too need to get out of government, to ensure that they do not become a facade behind which the military will indulge in its power play. Today, even with the South China Sea situation and proposed Kra channel https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/thailand-takes-a-step-back-from-kra-canal-proposal as a strategic bypass for Malacca Straits is not going to be influences for foreign governments to support the military. The Kra Isthmus is 60 miles long ( Panama is 50 miles, Suez is 120 miles) so by extreme engineering standards this is not an unworkable one. Yet environmental concerns and the questionable revenue model in a world that appears decoupling from China or hedging against Chinese influence means, a future Kra Canal would not offer the Thais the kind of advantage the Suez or Panama does for Egypt and Panamahttps://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/india-us-australia-interested-in-building-chinas-dream-kra-canal-project-in-thailand-report/articleshow/78180903.cms. Even India appears to have abandoned the Setu Samudram Project which would allow it to bypass Sri Lanka in national shipping from East & West Coasts.
The present King’s colourful ways, his frequent Bavarian retreats, the handling of his consort which is gristly palace intrigue, suddenly banishing her from the Court and reinstating her after a year Sineet Wongvajrapakdi of her royal titles and ranks this Septemberhttps://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/03/asia/thai-royal-consort-intl-hnk/index.html, have allowed Thais to trend #ReformTheMonarchy. So it doesn’t help the Thai State that they are besieged at this juncture when they have a King who is exactly not held in the same esteem and fatherly way the previous one was!
One wonders if Thai Buddhist clergy will step in the way their counterparts in Myanmar had. Thailand needs a honest broker, who will commit the military to retreat, who will make the Palace accept the need to be more circumspect and reticent in their ways and means, conforming to their status as Titular Royalty, and democratic players across all shades of political opinion to accept that they will not be partisan and present a united front to prevent future opportunism from the military-Palace interest groups that have meddled with democracy thus far! The more this unrest is not addressed to its root causes, the more the rebound upheaval could overthrow Thai State and society up in an unrecognisable manner!
indiarubberman.com 