19 June 2020
I do not wish to be drawn into the narrative that is now being issued. A narrative of fancy imagination where Chinese are supposed to have dammed rivulets of the Galwan River and released waters as a flash flood over soldiers who were spotted by Chinese drones as advancing over the very area from which the previous day Indian Army’s Bihar Regiment CO the late Colonel Santhosh Babu had uprooted a PLA tent and burnt it down. Apparently our soldiers were swept up in swirling waters, then clobbered by PLA soldiers who were fully equipped with spiked batons, with shields and body armour, and then they were pushed off the cliffs to their eventual deaths as they lay exposed to unfavourable weather conditions at 15000 feet and icy winds! Please tell such stories to those who want to buy them…
Now after the fact that today we know that Chinese have returned 10 soldiers from their custody in this very area, and that helicopters were pressed in to retrieve bodies and the wounded, can we say that we have accepted the new status quo that Chinese have not interdicted our subsequent movements? Or was the hostage taking a bargaining chip, to ensure that we withdrew after we collected our wounded and dead. Apparently more than four dozen troops were treated at the Leh hospital by the military, apparently the near three dozen troops whose situation was unknown have been now accounted for, including the 10 returned at site yesterday. This much is also clear that PLA have not declared officially any casualties, nor is their media issuing any input, the inputs so far in Global Times international edition quoted Indian vernacular or online websites!
Folks who have interest in reading what Chinese newspapers are reporting are stating that there has been no coverage of Galvan Valley skirmish in that country! International observers are quick to spot how Indian media is agog with speculation, patriotic narrative and even a questioning of its military actions, ( Zee News famous anchor Ms Liaquat who is part of a league of TV journalists with a pro RW narrative, a ‘Fox News put to shame’ league of effusive support of Mr Modi, did a spot in which she squarely put the blame of the Indian Army casualties on the military brass.) and how Mr Modi made a brief address asking to mourn the soldiers, besides holding a video conference with Opposition leaders. As usual, the IT Cell of the ruling party is full of how ‘Nehru is responsible’ and how the Congress record on China is comparable with the BJP’s! We can see a critical stance of the Congress emerging led by Mr Rahul and joined by his mother the Interim President, and spokesmen Mr Manish Tewari and Mr Pawan Khera, but in a surprise on could see an actual shift of ground by media anchors on prime time, where they muted others to allow them to have their say!
Then there is social media trending with #WeakestPMEver for Mr Modi, a panelist calling for BJP to oust Mr Modi last night on Times Now Prime Newshour Debate! Newspapers are full of opinions from people who previously felt that Mr Modi was ideal to lead India to how now his leadership is hurting India. It would seem that 2020 has done to Mr Modi what was done to Nehru in 1962!
India has options even now, for the ‘campaigning season lasts till late November’ and it offers us a good opportunity to take military action limited to the purpose of ensuring that
- Staving off further loss of strategic alignments of the LAC with the importance of unfettered access and operations on the DSDBO trunk road now nearing completion.
- As Col Sonam Wangchuk the ‘Lion of Ladakh’ weighed in with journalist Barkha Dutt on matters military, there will be local sentiments that India cannot afford to ignore, to restore the status quo ante and not settle for the new Chinese dictated one.
- The same could be in the form of a Operation Checkerboard kind of frog leap or a Kargil type frontal and localised operation to restore the LAC.
- Larger strategic calculus of denying the Chinese a terrestrial version of South China Sea with incremental expansions of PLA real estate on the LAC.
Those who argue that India must now negotiate with China for LAC verification are lost. Those who say India must boycott Chinese cuisine or Chinese goods are lost too. As former foreign secretary Ms Nirupama Rao weighed in in her column in The Hindu today, India now needs to strategically switch from a ‘may be neutral to China’s growth and prosperity’ to a clear adversarial yet unstated position. We missed the first opportunity with the Russia India China (RIC)dialogue, where Russia advised both sides to observe restraint on the border. Nobody is going to fight India’s battle with China, for we are not members of any formal military alignment. Yet, in coming months and years, I visualise a NATO style coalition emerging with USA,Japan, Australia and India having a formal Indo-Pacific Treaty Organisation, which is now informally called ‘the Quad’, but which should include Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, with special status to Tibetan Government in Exile and Hong Kong with India and UK catering for their representation. This IPTO later may have the entire ASEAN and SAARC and Polynesian nations as its members in a clear coalition of countries that are debt stricken and lease compromised with China thanks to the OBOR. The urgency to get to Phase1 of this alignment is because of the status of Dalai Lama, and that of Hong Kong, where the CCP is planning to unilaterally abrogate the assurances it gave the UK at the time of UK’s withdrawal from the island territory at the end of the last century!
At the level of international action,India should accept that ground reality is, whatever China and India developed over the last four decades from late Rajiv and Deng Handshake moment to the Mamallapuram summitry with Mr Modi and Mr Xi, is over. So India can immediately use two offices that are in near future of help to her international influence- the WHO and the UNSC. The pandemic is not getting over any time now, so all the more reason to use the momentum Australia has generated by seeking accountability from China. India can diplomatically hurt China more by ending her ambivalence and will find more and more Chinese debtors willing to cosy up to her to replace the bonuses of Chinese production for their populations. Punjab has declared a surplus capacity for PPE, which needs to be exported on priority, starting with countries like Maldives, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh who are supporting India in the immediate neighbourhood and even Malaysia, UAE, Qatar and other Gulf States could do with Indian largesse at this juncture. Next is testing kits and newly tested Dexamethasone and antivirals that India has found useful in trials in India that can be shared with these states.
The larger strategic issue is thinking of India as USA and imagining the Chinese nation as Soviet Union. At the height of the Cold War the template followed by the two sides is what India needs to take a leaf from. The hostility has to be overt. The pressure of propaganda and manoeuvres of non military nature have to be ratcheted up. Military spending to invest in capability enhancement, to compel Chinese to also man posts in sectors like Doklam and along Eastern Ladakh and other hotspots in winter is also important in the near and medium term. Increasing the naval presence in choke points like Hormuz and 10 Degree Channel or Malacca Straits, and joining freedom of navigation patrols by other countries or even stand alone in South China Sea are important to keep the Chinese under pressure. Mr Modi had shown great interest in China as CM and as PM, promoting a version of Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai of this century, and the narrative has now reached a familiar denouement! Future PMs and political leaders in India must not let the sacrifice of Indian troops in the Himalayan treachery of 2020 go in vain! The Dragon has shown clearly his preference that the Himalayas is a hill where two tigers cannot roam! It is up to the land of tigers and elephants to square up to China. This time there is no coming back! No comebacks either! Are we up to using Galwan’s memories to galvanise us to the unavoidable tasks ahead?https://youtu.be/JwKLYMwy74Q
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