Rajatarangini

17 January 2020

#Kashmir #Article370

I am no Kalhana though I feel that the archives that are the history of Kashmir must be continued from where he left off…for the Vitasta continues to flow, the Neelum and Jhelum do, his land that once enthroned the great seeker Lalithaditya is now riven with divisions and just this last year has seen some more…

The Chinar once used to evoke such memories written over leathery leaves that saw many winters and summers, its girth and its canopy embracing all the shades that made up this spring land, from here within not just Lal Ded and mysticism of Shiva, not just the Sharada script, not just the Buddhist, Jaina but Islamic Sufi lore was one of entwined and inseparable from those written before, scripts that predated the time of antiquity, stories woven when humans were not aware of what was night or that it followed day, what was season or what was seized in the moment…

I look at what is being played, I paused to record what is occurrence for liberals had hoped that the Supreme Court would come to some course of action on the issue of Article 370 and its write down, but now we know that it is to await its turn. Those habeas corpus petitions too yielded nought, did hearken sentiment pious but action precious. The petitions on the internet shut down were adjudicated by the SC last week, but a further week was given for authorities to review their orders. The SC has clearly ruled that there was no free pass, no indefinite clampdown either through Section 144 or denial of internet access. So while the liberal knows that there is no kindle to hope for some claw back, the pragmatist can see some thawing.

We had delegation of foreigners visit the Valley, we know that most importantly the EU refused to join. We had some mobile telephony services restored, we know that broad band services were restored in government hospitals and offices. We also know that some prisoners of ‘conscience’ since they were not held under the PSA were let off in the New Year and a few others were shifted to their residences converted as jails. We still have Dr Farooq Abdullah under PSA for a further 3 months. We also know that a Kolkata club played football in Srinagar. We had some examinations conducted for students, we also know that some academic activity picked up in the brief window before shuttering down for winter.

What is the government’s play? We can see that a Kashmiri businessman Altaf Bukhari being propped up as a moderate voice, and perhaps Mr Doval has identified in him the next generation of leadership for the Valley. He was formerly with the PDP but he fell out with Mehbooba Mufti and after his interaction with foreign envoys, he now stands isolated from the PDP. So can Mr Doval put resources and administrative backing to get Mr Bukhari to form a nonMufti non Abdullah political outfit that would start with a proverbial clean slate that Delhi is now looking for? A political partner in the Valley with another one from Jammu to form a coalition of ground level representation for elections to the new Legislative Council of the UT of J&K? Can such a formulation work for an election calendar by September? 

Right now, the government is betting heavily on nothing queering the pitch as far as its decisions with regard to the State. So a reasonable time to get things done will also be seen by the Supreme Court as legitimate political and government concerns, which could easily get stretched upto 2 years. We are just past the quarterly mark and approaching the half yearly, and we can say that the government crackdown has ensured a firm lid on any violence in the Valley. (There is no need to get excited about the arrest of a DySP D Singh of JKP who is connected with many events related to militancy and terror, from Parliament Attack case of 2001, to Pulwama of 2019! For at this moment, we don’t quite know which side of the law he was operating, and what is the emerging picture of his disposition.) Of course things are not normal, but then now post 370 and particularly 35 A, this situation is a new dawn. It calls for what is current to be expressly accepted as the new normal. We can see Track II already happening from Jammu where delegations have expressed the need for some guarantees for land ownership and for restrictions on locals for employment, so in all probability some kind of scheme will be in works, either through Article 371 or a special act like that for Himachal which bars non residents from buying land in that hill state and residency of 15 years as a rider for jobs in state quota. So bare bones 370 will slip back in some form or other, only the ignorant and lay public will not be exactly wiser.

So, with Muftis and Abdullahs not biting the bullet, not relenting to work on Delhi’s terms, the door appears shut for them. Remember Mr Modi is firmly ensconced in Delhi as a majoritarian PM for five years, and we are on the anvil of Parliamentary and Legislative Constituency delimitation exercises. In fact, why Mr Shah as MHA has chosen to place NPR as a stand alone and not bundled it out with the Constituency delimitation exercise or even with Census 2021 is because of its political messaging. It reassures the Hindutva core base of Mr Modi that the government is on track with its electoral promises, and you can expect that Uniform Civil Code will be passed perhaps as early as the Monsoon Session of 2020. So on a parallel track as the delimitations happen, the governmental road map for political exercise of elections to the UT J&K legislature will follow. Earliest it can be held is May 2021 now, since we have seen resistance from existing political players in the Valley. So we can also safely hazard a guess that the legal challenges to the passage of Presidential Proclamation and subsequent State Reorganisation Act by Parliament and the write downs of Article 370 would have exhausted their course by then. We can also expect that the government will allow a sanitised version of the internet with clear parameters for foreign browsers and social media platforms, with filters and delays for hosting and screening locally in Kashmir. Kashmir will not have normal telecommunications and news agencies in all probability until has a local government installed after the electoral exercise in the name of national interest. So do mark all this on your calendars.

We can expect later this summer a Business Summit for Investment in Jammu and Kashmir, probably after the Modi Trump Summit  and US legislation that hopefully restores preferential trading for India with the USA. We can expect a big push for crafts, weaves, horticulture and tourism this summer in the Valley and a full fledged Amarnath Yatra to compensate for the truncated one last year. We expect domestic tourism to get a fillip to visit Kashmir too.

For those whining about normalcy, the writing on the wall is clear. This is the normal. I do not foresee except through judicial fiat visits by opposition leaders to the Valley. I do not foresee a climate allowing for any people to people contact, mass contact programme like in the past to gauge the mood of the local Kashmiris. We are past those gestures and postures. This is where the remarks of the CDS about detaining kids for indoctrination come. Now did General Rawat simply advocate an idea for ‘de-radicalisation’ as he prefaced it, or did he allude to stuff already set up and running?  We know the SC did come to note detentions of even 9 year olds. But currently there is an extremely controlled environment operating on the other side of the Banihal Tunnel, and it would be specious to speculate. Only we can say if such drastic measures of indoctrination are being thought about at the highest levels of government then international precedences exist for democracies like Australia ( Aborigine kids) Canada ( Inuit kids) and then our northern neighbour China currently placing the whole of ethnic Uighur into detention camp! 

Kashmir is frozen or as yet invisible thaw has set? The Government is not idling, nor are those opposing the current scheme of things that have been set into motion. By biding time, readers can see that irrevocably status quo in Kashmir has been altered and judgement on outcomes are too premature as even the drawing board right now appears quite untouched…