23 November 2019
No, it was not a surprise, in fact a Maharashtra observer and good friend had offered this heads up months ago, immediately after the results of the Lok Sabha elections were announced, that for the state assembly there would be an alliance between SS-NCP-INC. It seemed heretical to me, it was of course understood that politics is one of strange bedfellows, and when the events unfolded, I was more taken by the Haryana greenshoots party of the Chautala family switching after the polls in an ‘unholy’ alliance, a premise with which a petition has been filed before the Supreme Court in the case of unfolding events in Maharashtra!(https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/fresh-plea-in-sc-to-stop-unholy-alliance-from-forming-govt-in-maharashtra/articleshow/72187535.cms)
Well, it is not that political agencies all over the country were not unaware of the dominance of the BJP in the poll arithmetic, it was revealed even earlier in UP, their first political laboratory, that votes were transferred to them through alliances, but once smitten, voters tended to vote BJP in future polls too, broadening the BJP vote share in the state at every level, except when there was significant voter sentiment for a party, like 2009 for Mr Rahul’s INC when Congress got a handsome haul from that state for the Lok Sabha, or when single party governments were formed in the state first by BSP under Ms Mayawati and then by SP led by Mr Akhilesh Yadav. And this was how the BJP has steadily helped itself with the SS in Maharashtra over these years of their ‘holy’ alliance.
Not just in vote share or voter confidence the BJP has inspired converts, but now we are quite familiar with the fact that BJP has many INC and NCP MLAs, MPs in its basket, and this too is a strategy the BJP previously shunned before the dramatic take over of Mr Shah as party president. So the efforts of the BJP to build up its base and its political strength is one of ‘no holds barred’ approach. We know how it induced MLAs to resign in Karnataka, we are acutely aware of how RS MPs in a first time ever switch of this nature, fled the TDP under what ever bus, they wanted to avoid getting crushed by, driven by BJP!
While the carping critics find this a matter of concern, that BJP has abandoned her traditional values and her cadre based approach to the party through these efforts, as an analyst, I found that this was an admirable application of Kautilya’s Arthashastra- Sama, Dama, Dund, Bheda are the corner stones of persuasion, to be welded to avoid actual blood letting by upsetting alliances, cornering loyalties and toppling hierarchies. So when the BJP convinced Mr Uddhav Thackeray, who editorially had been opposed to them for much of the five years of the Fadnavis and Modi governments at state and centre respectively, it was analysed and buried under the ‘B’ team analogy. Like how Anna Hazare and IAC movement had created the momentum for the BJP in the run up to 2014! Mr Raj Thackeray had also staged some very effective series of campaigns for the Lok Sabha, and his not making such an effort for the State Assembly polls subsequently, reveals one of the two- he was either silenced by the threat of ED inquiry, or that his act for the LS polls was a staged one. Muting of anti BJP voices was not causing alarm to the opposition, even the custodial investigations of Mr Chidambaram is being seen purely as a legal process, the custodial hold on the Abdullahs are being seen as in national interest, never mind the process!
Perhaps, the BJP missed the trick when it used the ED on Mr Sharad Pawar? Perhaps, looking at how they turned around the Haryana scene effortlessly by offering ‘freedom’ to grandfather and father of the leader of HJP in return for his support, made them confident for Maharashtra?
In Mumbai, the resentment against ‘Gujjus’ is a constant undercurrent. The Marathi Manoos realised late in the day how disadvantaged they were with capital being controlled by this lobby. Perhaps the Gujjus too were emboldened by one of their own being the most powerful and second most powerful, and particularly the stature of Mr Shah was directly a source of strength for the mercantile caste that is ubiquitous in greater Mumbai region. So this coalition as unholy as it appears, with SS joining the alliance of INC and NCP post poll, is seen here as a logical survival stratagem by local folk for not just the SS but equally the NCP. The Congress is staring at the abyss, and the sop of being technically in power in the fashion of the Bihar Mahagatbandhan before Mr Nitish switched sides was not lost to them, that too, in the commercial capital of India!So is this another throwback to Sena strategy alone of playing local versus the other?
The INC has always identified itself as a ‘Secular’ partner, so it has supported and offered support at both national and state level previously, by taking the backseat, as it did recently in Karnataka with JDS of Mr HD Kumaraswamy. Now it does take a more microscopic sense of separation on points the lay folk and analysts outside Maharashtra are trying to discern, as a grade separator for the INC that allows it to see the SS differently from the BJP. Few realise that now BJP does not have leadership of the kind that it once had, when the INC would have reached across the aisle for its support as it did when BJP was led by late Atalji. That like how late Rajiv Gandhi facilitated Atalji by an official trip to USA, or how Atalji was supportive of the Su30MKI deal that late PV Narasimha Rao did with the Russians under Mr Yeltsin, today one cannot imagine Mr Modi and Mr MM Singh, or Mr Shah and Mr Rahul get along in that fashion. So could this ‘unholy’ alliance be seen simply as a final thrust by political parties involved irrespective of ideology as a pure survival strategy? That the new BJP and its predatory instincts are threatening the very survival of political pluralism in the Indian polity, and practitioners of it as seasoned as Mr Sharad Pawar have come to realise it and exploit this for their own good?
There is then this law of diminishing returns…
As of this moment, Uddhav Thackeray has been announced by this ‘unholy’ alliance as their CM candidate, even as a palace coup of sorts has been staged by early morning oath taking by Mr Fadnavis as CM with Mr Ajit Pawar as Deputy CMhttps://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/maharashtra-government-formation-live-updates/liveblog/72152417.cms. Now the rumours of an unhappy nephew was the proverbial smoking gun. It shows how the rabbits can be pulled out from the hat at will by Mr Shah, and now the ‘courtesy’ call made by Mr Pawar to the PM will be read in new light! Of course, there is still the floor test, the fact that if Mr Pawar were to take this up personally, only he has the heft to prevent an exodus of MLAs from his bandwagon to the BJP camp! Whatever be the outcome of this drama of dagger and cloak, this spookiness and this series of serial skullduggery on their part is a game of riding the tiger. This level can never be a new normal in politics, because the transactional nature of political posturing with electoral image and winnability are in conflict with such ‘naked’ opportunisms in the long run! In the sprint for Maharashtra, we may well see the BJP lose stamina for the marathon of India…
indiarubberman.com 