Persian Perplexity!

21 May 2019

Fast gathering pace is the enormity of what could be another of those ‘phantom’ caused wars, like Iraqi WMD which deposed Saddam Hussein for which several million Iraqis paid with their lives and personal wealth, the great farce of Gulf War 2 still lingers in the Persian Gulf, she is very much recovering, rebuilding her society and somehow eking out a living, surviving Kurdish attempts at Independence and ISIS insurgency!

Syria too underwent a similar regime change effort, only it was not backed by overt American arms and boots on ground. Then not only Russians intervened in a heavy way, reactivating old Cold War bases and rearming the regime of Assad, but ISIS came in to muddle the picture for the American coalition. Now European investigators and UN agencies have confirmed that Syria did not use any Hazmat substance including nerve gas against civilians and rebels, and with this clean chit, Assad regime appears safe from further destabilising challenges from the global community.

So what model will Trump invoke to interfere in Iran? Since the Obama era Iran Deal was ratified by many stakeholders including Russia, China and EU it is difficult for America to unilaterally impose her will on these considerable partners on the global arena. While the Iran sanctions unilaterally imposed by the US this time, have had most countries towing the line, significantly China is yet to decide her pitch and India has promised Iran to relook this issue when the new government is formed after 23 May. Many are theorising how Oil sales is the key motivator for American backed Saudis and the dominance of the oil market is what has driven Saudi Kingdom to target the Iranians.

Iran is like a bug that refuses to go away, a wound that refuses to heal for the ultra right of US Policy wonks! Bolton who is NSA is one of the steadfast advocates of US intervention in the Gulf, and was in the inner circle that tried to pin first the 9/11 attacks on Iraq, and then created the WMD narrative for Gulf War 2. So his presence in Trump Presidency means that the present military build up including air craft carrier groups in the Persian Gulf should not be taken lightly. (https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2019/05/20/USS-Lincoln-USS-Kearsarge-conduct-joint-operations-in-Persian-Gulf/9521558356472/)This despite the US President consistently stating that he does not want America to be involved in false wars, costing tax payer money and American lives.(https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1129203/iran-news-uk-special-forces-us-strike-group-persian-gulf-ww3)

There is one angle that is being missed by most commentators, which is the compact between Princes! MBS on the Saudi side as its Crown Prince, with Jared Kushner on the American side in the White House as special adviser to the POTUS. If one sees how MBS has risen and attribute it to American behind the scenes action, then you can understand how much the Establishment in Washington has yielded to Family Trump. Of course, it became all the more evident when the Khashoggi episode was handled by USA. An act of outrageous barbarism was simply glossed over and left to the devices of MBS to stage manage, with the White House leaning on EU to let the Saudis handle their mess with Turkey’s Erdogan. Now the Yemen war which was started by MBS and which the Saudis are badly losing with Houthi rebels successfully staging a ceasefire since last December is perhaps the flash point for the ratcheting of tensions with Iran. Iran is seen as a Houthi backer, like how it backs Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Houthis control most of the ports in Yemen and recently drone fired on an oil pipeline and some Saudi oil tankers were attacked near port too. This made the Saudis resume their aerial bombings. Yemen is perilously close to famine due to Saudi blockade, but every one knows the Houthis are not going to be affected by it one bit. So would Saudis risk dealing directly with Iran to relieve the pressure in Yemen? Unlikely.

Through their control over OPEC and the current pressure US has placed for importing Iranian oil, the Saudis are favourably placed diplomatically, so why would they risk war? After all any war involving the Persian Gulf would make their own export of oil that much more risky and costly!

Ten years from now, people will no longer look at Iraq and ask whether the US intervention was worth it, bets Bolton. For it took US considerable military wear, American lives to free Iraq from insurgency, from ISIS and then over next few years, Iraqi society will be on the mend, as a imperfect democracy, managing the pulls between the majority Shia, the Sunni region around Basra and Kurdish in the North. America will evaluate their intervention positively by 2030! So Bolton would look at the Islamic Republic with similar contempt. He would be presenting to Trump this milieu where ordinary Iranian women are flashing their faces from the Hijab, breaking into dance in public to defy the stringent moral police in Iran. He would be telling Trump that this would be the best legacy for his presidency, a new Iran that is a US ally, with American companies back in Persian Gulf controlling the Persian oil block. Strategically this was much better than the Obama era policy of fracking and pump priming to effectively end US dependence on oil imports, which would also preserve the conservative American Way for at least another century! Iraqi and Iranian Oil together would make America hold all the chips to deal finally with Wahhabism and Saudi Kingdom, which would be a sort of delayed comeuppance for 9/11!

Like Operation Iraqi Liberation (OIL) whose obvious acronym changed it to Operation Iraqi Freedom when it got underway, American Deep State and Old Economy vested interests as Stake Holders, are relentlessly pushing for Operation Iranian Liberation! There is nothing more to this Persian perplexity than this simple Imperial Doctrine of resource mongering! Do not get fooled by any highfalutin logic being bandied by analysts and opinion shapers in the wide world web!