Dead Pan

27 April 19

From 2014, those heady months leading up to May, to now, there are crucial differences. It is for us to notice or ignore these, the first crucial one is the lack of any anger now against the Congress Party, which has been viewed by people as the natural party of India’s social and political chemistry. The biggest Phoenix resurrection story for any political persona should be that of Mr Rahul Gandhi, though one does feel the induction of Ms Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has some what lessened this central theme of the Congress, including the needless speculation over a gladiatorial contest in Varanasi.
The manifesto of the INC was the most talked about, trashed about, discussed with fervour on all sides of the spectrum, the inputs have been ones with consultations across the experts in fields from national security to international economics, and the document is surely one which suggests that there is a path to somewhere, it certainly is a path to a future.
Contrast this with Mr Modi’s assertion that the last five years were preparatory and the next five would bear fruit, and that people would be wise to keep faith with his watch. He has argued for a ‘pro incumbency’ vote, and has suggested that the INC will not do more than it did last time, garnering no more than 40 odd seats.
The media of TV and Social websites continues its relentless focus on Mr Modi. And Mr Modi has focussed on himself. Across 49 rallies so far, the most commonly used word by Mr Modi remains ‘Modi’ at 170 times, while the word ‘jobs’ has been used seven times as per media watchers. Far more important than the narcissism is the contrast with the 2014 campaign where from each pulpit the High Priest of Indian Good Times sought to place before eager Indians ways and means of transforming all that ailed India, from its grain rotting FCI godowns to its dysfunctional railways, its high way connectivity and its lack of jobs. Sure Mr Modi does offer youth solutions, like tapping methane gas from drainage, for fuel, or selling pakodas, and he does offer his sage advice with a straight and onerous face, still the Indian lay person is now less than enthusiastic for his prescriptions!
Where overwhelming percentage of voters surveyed have laid bare that Jobs, economic growth and living conditions are their key concerns, Mr Modi displays utter disconnect, speaking about Pakistan, about Muslims and how his India is sending the right message after terror attacks by not changing the ministers but by changing the response! The nationalist plank of hammering Pakistan through the air, by using the IAF in Balakot appears to appeal to Indians who are weary with Pakistan and seek strong arm tactics with visible results, it would seem. Still voters are apprehensive about the religious consolidation that is now the main contention of the BJP campaign right from Mr Modi to Ms Menaka Gandhi. Unlike 2014, Modi supporters claim that now he is watching inside the voting booth with cameras to check if his voters are voting for him, or else.
Nothing has shown how BJP now is vastly different from its ‘Sab Ka Saath Sab Ka Vikas’ billing of 2014, is how the party foisted Sadhvi Pragnya Singh Thakur as its candidate from a safe seat of Bhopal. Like Varanasi, Mr Modi’s seat, which has not changed hands in last three Lok Sabha polls, Bhopal was ordinary contest until Mr Digvijay Singh a former CM and Congress heavy weight was nominated to contest there. It was sort of a confirmatory vote for all to see, that any pretence of any alternative strategy was given the go by, that it remained only Hindu consolidation of votes.
Mr Raj Thackeray and Mr Sharad Pawar have both spoken against Mr Modi. Mr Thackeray uses a unique style where he plays videos of Mr Modi and BJP claims and then refutes them point by point. It is unusual style and once he even brought to the stage those who were used as props to a BJP campaign suggesting that a family had been lifted out of poverty thanks to Mr Modi. This style is too narrow and straight for Indian politics, and it is actually very presidential.
Great changes happen in Social media, be it WhatsApp or Twitter or Facebook, where now people quickly puncture any claim put up for achievements of the BJP government. Even on TV debates now BJP spokespersons are interjected with facts when they make their by now familiar utopian claims.
Is the opposition running a great campaign? Far from it! Is the mobilisation and consolidation of voters revealing any anti incumbency streak? Far from it! Yet the mood is wan. There is a small tell tale drag in BJP camp and an almost missed spring in the gait of hopeful and aspirational PMs like Ms Mamata and Ms Mayawati, besides Mr Rahul smiling more often. Body language is more gaunt and defensive for BJP leaders. The rally empty chairs and crowd strengths are so manipulated that I really do not want to go by these. In any case, late Rajiv Gandhi was a crowd puller who showed poor vote transfers. Popularity rating of serving PM is also a thing I prefer to discount.
With every phase of voting, on Twitter at least, I see people coming out with their matrices of vote shares and seats anticipated. People asserting comfortable majorities for BJP and Mr Modi say so on astrological predictions, latest being that even Puttaparthi Saibaba had made predictions of Mr Modi as PM for many terms. The detractors use tabulated lists to show that the BJP is set to either come a close second or a distant third, averaging between 110-173 MPs!
All I can say is in 2014 after the euphoria of Mr Modi’s oath taking, no one thought that Mr Modi would be in the situation that he is in now today. The mood has changed. While overtly dead pan, it drops hints that the honeymoon with Mr Modi is clearly over!