Evolving equations:How the post strike affects play out.

No one can Predict the way events will unfurl. For fog of war is something known to all battle planners, that no plan survives contact! I said categorically that we have to be prepared for all contingencies because, after setting the ball rolling with a new paradigm shift in responses by striking deep in the heart of Pakistan, it would be a surprise if Pakistan did not get it’s say edgewise even. We don’t have the leadership that could have addressed the world after speaking first with Imran Khan informing him of the strikes, an address primarily for the Pakistani people, telling them that India was compelled to do what she had done, that she took great care to raid and drop bombs out of harms way of civilian peaceful Pakistanis, and that now India wanted to work hand in hand with Pakistan to rid it of the cancer of terror.

Rather later, much later, a tepid statement did emerge from the MEA which was worded to inform Pakistani people that the actions were intended to strike at the heart of Pakistani terror networks and not her people. In the meanwhile Imran Khan made two countermeasures. He allowed PAF to get one back in as response, for which details are not yet clear, by raiding some areas in LoC, luring an Indian response, which led to the downing of an Indian jet. At the time of writing this, we know this from BBC that the aircraft was MiG21 Bison and it was launched to counter intruding F16s, and was piloted by Wg Cdr Abhinandan. India initially denied the BBC news, then Pakistan released pictures and videos after which India issued a formal statement. There was also report of another crash inside Indian Kashmir, where local populace was seen carrying a pilot out from the wreckage.

On this scene from a neutral perspective, Indian handling of information was poor. Details of the second crash,  came online much later, without any official communication, when videos of this were on social media in the morning around 11 am. Then the PM least expected to address the world, Imran Khan came on TV screens and he spoke in a measured manner, saying that PAF has staged some raids in Indian Kashmir to demonstrate its capability, and literally he sued for peace, saying that war with the kind of weapons both countries possessed was not predictable or controllable, an euphemism for Nuclear weapons.

Now India is expected to either claw back or further take on targets. If she has decided that a threshold had been crossed it made little sense to accept Imran Khan’s offer unless, the PM now cut all his schedule off, flew down to Pakistan like how Gen Zia had done in the aftermath of EX Brasstacks, which was dubbed ‘cricket diplomacy’. Mr Modi could show personal stake by doing this, as well as statesmanship, and sign a Islamabad Accord, wherein Pakistan could commit to clear steps of dismantling its terror network and handling over Dawood to India! It could promise to try Masood Azar  and others in Pakistan, for they are involved in crimes in that country as well, unlike Dawood.

The other way is where PM has offered a free hand to the military, which means that India could escalate further, perhaps by cruise missiles lobbed into the AfPak area, which nests all, because covert capability is clearly missing, India will resort to conventional capability only. It would also be possible for a raid in Lahore Muridke area or  nearabouts, to try and capture a vital person in Pakistan’s terror network, which would involve special forces teams.

Of course, social media was sickening, first with all the chest thumping over the raids, and then with views on how the IAF pilot knew what he signed up for. Diplomatically, Pakistan is not getting any support except for the Islamic bloc-OIC, which incidentally invited India after five decades. Turkey supported her, Saudi was muted, while predictably the entire Western Block of nations from Australia to France to UK mentioned India’s right to strike against terror while hoping that the situation would be contained.

India’s ruling coalition is campaigning without respite, with key cabinet members on campaign trail adhering to schedules announced prior on Twitter handles of their parties. The opposition too is carrying on with its schedule. PM Modi inaugurated an App yesterday in the midst of all the emotional upheaval surrounding the IAF aircraft and personnel. It sends a strong message that business is as usual. It lends to the image of India comparable to the USA, where marines or USAF is involved in some distant place while the country is going through its day as usual.

We wait and watch…ball is equally in PM Imran’s corner as it is with PM Modi. 28 February 2019 0700