While the options of another surgical strike or even a limited cross border strike with missiles on major terror camps like Muridke are on the table, Indian Executive must weigh their impact against their fall out. Right now the US backs us, but Saudi Arabia from whom we import most of our oil just extended a blank cheque to Pakistan to offer them a lifeline. We have Russia, EU and China extending nuanced support to India’s view on Pulwama and Pakistan itself using rhetoric to counter India’s diatribe against JeM and Pakistani export of terror.
What changed at Pulwama is that the act was perpetrated by a local, there were others who were at the scene who fired bullets on the convoy but who melted away after the Scorpio impacted successfully and devastated the scene. It was RDX, the sophistry of the rig is undeniable. It means that home grown variety of Burhan Wani is not just romantic but downright deadly. Dark web being what it is, we will never be able to provide a money trail, or a material trail tracing back to the Pakistanis that would stand the test of proof in a court of law. Unlike 26/11 no handlers, no phone/voice over IP back and forth between perpetrator and ring leaders. This is a new level of escalation.
Then we have an ongoing operation that brings sharply to focus on things within our hands. A joint operation has thus far neutralised three militants, but claimed six security personnel and counting. Four from the Army’s RR unit, two SPG policemen and one J&K IPS officer are casualties so far. It shows how joint operations should not work. Why age old tactics like battle rush drill are not being replaced with tenets of urban warfare where image sensors, drones and use of impact calibre bullets are routine? If one sees the percentages security forces have lost far more personnel in encounters in the last couple of years, while militants have suffered far fewer, leading to unflattering comparisons. If Humint or interdiction of security cordons by stone throwing civilians, better terrain awareness are all indicators, they conclude that now the terrorist is extremely local, essentially operating from home turf.
So we need to put distance between our forces and militants. We need to use drones for better surveil, we need only Special forces teams and teams like them to operate in the valley hotbeds. We need to outsource these if need be, to civil contractors, they could be former SF, former CAPF who are battle hardened and not fresh ‘inoculation by induction’ troopers! We need them to only operate in their hyper local grids, never rotating or moving out except for Recreation and Rest. We can create local Salwa Judums, train Kashmiris to use internet and social media to counter the hate spiel that is flowing incessantly from across the border, partner with them in countering propaganda and collaborate with our best minds and artistes to create the counter narrative that is glaringly missing!
We need to create the Counter Terrorism Centre at National level, and recreate India’s black operations capability. Unknown to us and the rest of the world, they could bring justice to known designated targets like Dawood, Masood Azhar and others, and the tasking should involve an in principle approval by a committee on National Security which must include the PM, the Three Service Chiefs, and the Leader of Opposition. The terror king pins must know that Indians will deliver comeuppance.
We need to get more investment in terms of Psy Ops and civilian interface with Kashmiri population. Like Northern Ireland, it is not enough for them to see futility of armed conflict, they must see value in their stake in India. For that we need to keep Kashmir exclusively away from the national rhetoric and voter calculus. In fact we need to avoid a situation like now, where the Government is under intense scrutiny and pressure to deliver a befitting response to Pulwama. Never mind that people who lead now can be held largely responsible for this state of affairs. Nation building is a 1000 year harvest as per Tamil ancients! Unless we create mechanisms and systems that will insulate Kashmir from adhocism and immediacy, we will be haunted by future Pulwamas!
indiarubberman.com 